How Much Higher Can Planet Labs Stock Go From Here?
A $10,000 holding in Planet Labs PBC (PL) bought at its late-August high is now worth about $8,200. That fall tempts you to buy, so the real question is how much higher the stock can go from here. Planet Labs’ own past drops show how much buyers gained or lost before, once you know what its latest results showed.
Latest Results Showed Record Revenue
The latest quarter was strong, but the forecast was mixed. In early September, management reported record quarterly revenue of $116.1 million. That was up 58% from a year earlier. Management also raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027. Its forecast for the fiscal third quarter, though, sits below the second quarter’s result. The company’s recent news gives no clear reason for the drop in the shares.
The drop from late August is the latest leg of a longer slide. Over the past six months, the stock lost 50% while the S&P 500 gained 17.5%. Planet Labs has had many sharp drops before, and each one left a result you can check.
What Did Buying Past Planet Labs Drops Earn?
Buying the stock after a sharp drop has usually lost money over the following year. Since 2021, the stock has had 14 such drops. Each was a fall of at least 20% within 30 trading days. Twelve have a full year behind them, and only four of those were higher a year later. The median result was a 25% loss. Results ranged from a 56% loss to a 576% gain. The biggest gains came from the latest drops with a full year behind them. Today’s 18% drop is shallower than the 20% falls in the record, so the record is a reference, not a forecast.
Buying came at a cost, too. At the median, the stock fell another 38% first. That would cut the value of a $10,000 purchase to about $6,200. The median best gain within a year was also 38%. It took a median of 106 days, about three and a half months, to arrive.
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 11.2% |
| 3M | 13.2% |
| 6M | -6.9% |
| 12M | -24.8% |
| 30 Day Dip | PL Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | PL | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -25% | 38% | -38% | 106 | ||||
| 6162026 | -27% | 5% | -43% | 14 | ||||
| 11132025 | -23% | 0% | -2% | 196 | ||||
| 3102025 | -33% | -8% | 576% | 691% | -19% | 312 | ||
| 9062024 | -26% | 0% | 443% | 443% | 0% | 370 | ||
| 4192024 | -21% | -4% | 78% | 271% | -3% | 297 | ||
| 9122023 | -22% | -3% | -30% | 0% | -42% | 0 | ||
| 6232023 | -26% | 5% | -39% | 23% | -45% | 39 | ||
| 3172023 | -23% | -6% | -39% | 27% | -47% | 83 | ||
| 12272022 | -23% | -4% | -39% | 22% | -51% | 17 | ||
| 10252022 | -21% | -2% | -56% | 20% | -57% | 38 | ||
| 7112022 | -21% | -3% | -25% | 59% | -33% | 66 | ||
| 5102022 | -24% | -12% | 2% | 82% | -17% | 128 | ||
| 3032022 | -25% | -4% | -5% | 49% | -20% | 196 | ||
| 12142021 | -32% | 1% | -25% | 4% | -44% | 275 | ||
That history shows how drops like this played out, and the business under the stock today matters just as much.
Planet Labs’ Business Grows Fast, At A High Price
Planet Labs’ business today is growing fast, but its shares are priced far above the market average on sales. The company sells daily data and insights about change on Earth, gathered by its satellites. The company has also shipped its Tanager-2 satellite to its launch site. Revenue over the last twelve months rose 44% from a year earlier. Planet Labs still loses money. Its net loss widened to 95% of revenue over the last twelve months, from 72% three years ago. Even so, operating cash flow, the cash that day-to-day business brings in, came to 31% of revenue.
Investors pay 16.7 times a year of revenue for the shares, against 3.1 times for the S&P 500. Earnings are negative, so a price-to-earnings ratio does not apply. Each share also owns a smaller slice of the company, because the share count rose 31% in three years. A buyer today is betting that the growing business can justify that price.
Which Planet Labs Are You Buying Today?
You would be buying today’s fast-growing company. Yet only four of twelve past drops were higher a year later. For the upside to show up, revenue has to keep growing and the loss has to shrink. That has to happen at a price far above the market’s. You would also need to sit through a further fall like the ones past buyers usually faced. The record shows what past buyers earned. Where this drop goes depends on your view of this business.
How To Act On PL?
