More Upside For Planet Labs Stock?

September 9th, 2025 by Trefis Team
PL: Planet Labs PBC logo
PL
Planet Labs PBC

Planet Labs (NYSE:PL), the San Francisco–based Earth-imaging and geospatial analytics company, has transformed from a niche satellite operator into a rapidly scaling AI-powered data platform. Shares trade near $9, up more than 110% year-to-date from their early 2025 lows, as optimism builds around record contract wins, expanding AI analytics capabilities, and next-generation satellite launches. The big question: could Planet’s share price double from here and approach $20? Let’s break it down. But if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Opendoor – OPEN Stock To $9?

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Photo by susan-lu4esm on Pixabay

Key Catalysts for Stock Doubling

  • Explosive Growth and Valuation – Planet reported revenue of $262 million in fiscal 2025, growing over 20% year-over-year. Analysts project revenue could exceed $750 million by 2028, driven by government, defense, and enterprise demand for real-time geospatial intelligence. At today’s ~$2.9 billion market cap, Planet trades at roughly 11× sales. That’s high for a small-cap, but if revenue continues compounding at 25%+, even a modest 8× multiple on 2028 projections would support a share price above $20.
  • Expanding AI Geospatial Business – The company is transitioning from being just a “satellite imagery provider” to a full-fledged AI-powered geospatial insights platform. Its upcoming Pelican satellite constellation, with higher resolution and faster revisit rates, will power premium subscriptions and AI-driven analytics for climate monitoring, agriculture, disaster response, and national security. With nearly 100% utilization of its imagery pipeline and strong gross margins, Planet is set to scale profitably as new satellites come online.
  • Strategic Contracts and Infrastructure – Planet has secured several landmark multi-year contracts, including a €240 million German government deal, a multi-year Colombia defense agreement, and extensions with U.S. intelligence agencies. Its growing backlog (over $600 million) provides strong revenue visibility. Additionally, by integrating AI directly into its geospatial platform, Planet is building sticky, recurring revenue streams that rival SaaS-style business models.
  • Competitive Cost Structure – Unlike hyperscale cloud peers, Planet owns and operates one of the world’s largest satellite fleets, giving it a vertically integrated cost advantage. With satellites already in orbit and new launches leveraging reusable rockets and improved sensor tech, Planet’s unit economics are improving, making data delivery cheaper and more scalable than rivals who rely on third-party sources.

Risk Factors That Could Hamper This Growth

  • Historical Volatility and Profitability Concerns – Planet’s stock has been highly volatile, collapsing nearly 80% from its post-SPAC peak before the 2025 rebound. Despite strong revenue growth, the company remains unprofitable, losing ~$90 million annually. Sustained net losses could weigh on investor sentiment if profitability timelines slip.
  • Competitive Market and Technology Risk – The geospatial data market is increasingly competitive, with startups, traditional aerospace firms, and cloud hyperscalers developing satellite imaging or analytics offerings. Rapid technological change also poses a risk — Planet must continually invest in upgraded sensors and AI models to avoid obsolescence.
  • Execution and Valuation Risk – With an 11× sales multiple, Planet already prices in substantial growth. Delays in Pelican satellite deployment, contract execution, or customer adoption could undermine the doubling thesis. If growth falls below expectations, multiple compression could send shares back toward the single digits.

Investment Verdict

Planet Labs offers a compelling growth story in the space-tech and AI geospatial intelligence sector. The company’s unique combination of the world’s largest commercial satellite fleet, deep government relationships, and expanding AI-powered analytics positions it well to scale into a billion-dollar revenue company.

The math behind a stock price doubling to $20 is straightforward: with revenue projected to nearly triple by 2028, even a modest compression of its current sales multiple still supports higher share prices.

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However, investors must recognize the risks. Planet’s history of volatility, persistent unprofitability, and stiff competition make this a high-risk, high-reward bet. For those bullish on the rising importance of geospatial intelligence and AI-driven Earth data, Planet Labs could be one of the most compelling plays of 2025 — but it won’t be a smooth ride.

There always remains a meaningful risk when investing in a single, or just a handful, of stocks. Consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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