How Will Parker Hannifin Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Parker Hannifin (NYSE:PH) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $121 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $20 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.5 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Parker Hannifin’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 70% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 83% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 14 positive returns = 3.8%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -1.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/29/2026 | 3.5% | 5.6% | 10.3% |
| 11/6/2025 | 7.8% | 10.6% | 13.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 4.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.8% | 3.0% | 10.2% |
| 1/30/2025 | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 1.6% | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 11.8% |
| 5/2/2024 | -2.3% | 2.2% | -1.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | 7.7% | 10.7% | 16.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | 9.2% | 10.8% | 19.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| 5/4/2023 | -0.3% | 1.1% | 5.9% |
| 2/2/2023 | 2.7% | 7.1% | 9.9% |
| 11/3/2022 | 0.9% | 2.0% | 5.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | 1.2% | 3.3% | -7.3% |
| 5/5/2022 | -5.0% | -8.8% | -4.2% |
| 2/3/2022 | -2.5% | -1.7% | -10.9% |
| 11/4/2021 | 7.1% | 7.8% | 0.7% |
| 8/5/2021 | -1.0% | -2.4% | -2.5% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.6% | -1.0% | -3.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 6.4% | 10.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -2.1% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.8% | 13.6% | 19.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.0% | -8.8% | -10.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 20.4% | 30.4% | 29.8% |
| 3Y History | -28.9% | 6.2% | 15.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Parker Hannifin stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Parker Hannifin. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PH Earnings Dates | PH | DHR | HON | RTX |
| 1/29/2026 | 3.5% | -8.1% | N/A* | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | 7.8% | -4.6% | -5.8% | 1.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | 4.0% | 4.5% | -3.5% | 4.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.8% | 2.4% | -0.4% | 12.0% |
| 1/30/2025 | 5.7% | -7.0% | N/A* | 0.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 1.6% | -6.0% | -1.6% | -3.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 10.8% | 1.7% | -6.8% | 1.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | -2.3% | -2.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 2/1/2024 | 7.7% | 4.4% | N/A* | 2.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 9.2% | -2.0% | 0.0% | 5.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | 3.0% | 0.7% | -3.0% | -2.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | -0.3% | 4.5% | -1.2% | -5.1% |
| 2/2/2023 | 2.7% | 6.1% | N/A* | -2.5% |
| 11/3/2022 | 0.9% | -0.7% | 4.0% | 7.3% |
| 8/4/2022 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 2.8% |
| 5/5/2022 | -5.0% | -9.5% | 2.3% | -2.9% |
| 2/3/2022 | -2.5% | -5.1% | N/A* | 2.8% |
| 11/4/2021 | 7.1% | -1.5% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 8/5/2021 | -1.0% | 6.3% | 0.2% | -1.5% |
| CORRELATION | 13.7% | -9.2% | 52.9% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after PH
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