How Will Pfizer Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $150 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $63 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $17 Bil in operating profits and net income of $7.8 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Pfizer’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 3.2%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -1.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | -3.3% | 1.5% | -0.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.5% | 0.6% | 6.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.4% | -3.8% | -9.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | 2.2% | -3.2% | -6.2% |
| 5/1/2024 | 6.1% | 8.4% | 11.7% |
| 1/30/2024 | -1.7% | -3.3% | -1.6% |
| 10/13/2023 | 3.6% | -4.5% | -8.5% |
| 8/1/2023 | -1.2% | -1.1% | 0.2% |
| 5/2/2023 | -0.4% | -1.4% | -2.0% |
| 1/31/2023 | 1.4% | 0.5% | -7.7% |
| 11/1/2022 | 3.1% | 2.0% | 8.6% |
| 7/28/2022 | -1.6% | -3.3% | -7.1% |
| 5/3/2022 | 2.0% | 0.6% | 9.2% |
| 2/8/2022 | -2.8% | -6.4% | -8.4% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.1% | 11.7% | 26.4% |
| 7/28/2021 | 3.2% | 9.5% | 13.9% |
| 5/4/2021 | 0.3% | 1.1% | -1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 2.0% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -3.3% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 11.7% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -3.3% | -6.4% | -9.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -7.5% | 29.3% | 33.7% |
| 3Y History | -38.7% | -11.2% | 55.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Pfizer stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Pfizer. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE Earnings Dates | PFE | JNJ | MRK | ABBV |
| 2/3/2026 | -3.3% | 6.9% | N/A* | -2.5% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.5% | -2.1% | -2.8% | N/A* |
| 8/5/2025 | 5.2% | 3.6% | -2.2% | N/A* |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.2% | 1.5% | 6.1% | -3.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.3% | 5.7% | N/A* | 6.5% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.4% | -2.4% | N/A* | -2.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | 2.2% | 3.0% | N/A* | 15.0% |
| 5/1/2024 | 6.1% | 4.7% | -1.5% | -8.0% |
| 1/30/2024 | -1.7% | -0.7% | N/A* | 2.7% |
| 10/13/2023 | 3.6% | N/A* | N/A* | 1.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -1.2% | 0.3% | N/A* | 9.4% |
| 5/2/2023 | -0.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | -4.8% |
| 1/31/2023 | 1.4% | -2.9% | N/A* | -10.4% |
| 11/1/2022 | 3.1% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 7/28/2022 | -1.6% | 1.5% | N/A* | -0.9% |
| 5/3/2022 | 2.0% | -2.6% | 1.0% | -5.6% |
| 2/8/2022 | -2.8% | 2.3% | -2.7% | 3.5% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.1% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| 7/28/2021 | 3.2% | 1.6% | N/A* | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 7.2% | 49.2% | -36.6% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after PFE
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