How To Trade PepsiCo Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, October 9, 2025. For event-driven traders, understanding historical stock patterns can be a critical edge, regardless of how the actual results stack up against consensus estimates.

Traders typically employ two strategies based on this historical analysis:

• Pre-Earnings: Position yourself based on the historical odds of positive or negative movement prior to the earnings release.
• Post-Earnings: Analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the release and position yourself accordingly.

Historically, PEP stock has shown a strong bias for a positive one-day return following earnings announcements. Over the last five years, the stock has risen on the day following results in 78% of instances, with a median gain of 1.5% and a maximum one-day gain of 3.6%.

Consensus estimates project earnings of $2.26 per share on sales of $23.84 billion. This compares to the year-ago quarter’s earnings of $2.31 per share on sales of $23.32 billion.

From a fundamental perspective, PepsiCo has a current market capitalization of $195 billion. The company reported $92 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, resulting in strong operational profitability with $12 billion in operating profit and $7.6 billion in net income.

That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock like PEP, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Image by Shaarc from Pixabay

PepsiCo’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 78% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 75% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 14 positive returns = 1.5%, and median of the 4 negative returns = -1.1%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

PEP 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Returns

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

PEP Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of PepsiCo stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before PepsiCo. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

PEP Correlation With Peer Earnings

Investing in a single stock without comprehensive analysis can be risky. Consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates