The shares of Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ: PENN) observed a deep contraction in Q4 2021 along with its peers, Draft Kings and Flutter Entertainment, due to concerns of high competitive rivalry, the Omicron variant disrupting the NFL league, and a pullback in macroeconomic activity. Per Q4 filings, the market share of Penn’s sports betting application Barstool in Pennsylvania and Michigan was 8.9% and 9.5%, respectively. Notably, Pennsylvania and New Jersey account for 35% of the total sports betting handle since 2018. Is PENN stock likely to gain more in the coming weeks and months or is a decline more likely? Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, PENN stock has a 59% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Penn National Gaming Stock Chance of Rise for more details. (related: Las Vegas Sands Stock: Ride The Momentum Or Pull Out?)
Five Days: PENN 1.8%, vs. S&P 500 -0.4%; Outperformed market (35% event probability)
- PENN stock gained 1.8% over a five-day trading period ending 02/08/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 0.4% over the same period.
- Returns of 1.8% or higher over five-day period on 873 occasions out of 2517 (35%); Stock rose in the next 5 days in 457 of these 873 instances (52%).
Ten Days: PENN 11%, vs. S&P 500 3.8%; Outperformed market (10% event probability)
- PENN stock gained 11% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which increased 3.8%.
- Returns of 11% or higher over 10-day period on 258 occasions out of 2517 (10%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 158 of these 258 instances (61%).
Twenty-One Days: PENN 1.8%, vs. S&P 500 -3.3%; Outperformed market (48% event probability)
- PENN stock gained 1.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which lost 3.3%.
- Returns of 1.8% or higher over 21-day period on 1214 occasions out of 2516 (48%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 714 of these 1214 instances (59%).
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|S&P 500 Return||0%||-5%||102%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||0%||-9%||258%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/9/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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