Long-Term Debt Obligations Weighing On PBF Energy Stock

PBF: PBF Energy logo
PBF
PBF Energy

The shares of PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF) continue to trade 25% below pre-pandemic levels despite the  surge in benchmark oil and natural gas prices in recent months. The company is one of the largest independent petroleum refiners in the United States with a throughput of 1 MMBPD (million barrels per day) and supplies transportation fuels, heating oil, lubricants and other petroleum products. Macroeconomic uncertainty due to the Russia-Ukraine war has pumped up the oil & gas benchmarks in recent months, benefiting the sector as supply remains constrained. Notably, the company’s long-term debt to total asset ratio of 0.4 is restricting superior returns despite the strength in the WTI benchmark. Thus, the stock is unlikely to gain more in the coming weeks and months. Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, PBF stock has a 39% chance of a rise over the next month (twenty one trading days). See our analysis PBF Energy Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: PBF 7%, vs. S&P 500 0.05%; Outperformed market (15% event probability)

  • PBF Energy stock gained 7% over a five-day trading period ending 04/04/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which increased by 0.05% over the same period.
  • Returns of 7% or higher over a five-day period on 352 occasions out of 2336 (15%); Stock rose in the next five days in 186 of these 352 instances (53%).
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Ten Days: PBF 20%, vs. S&P 500 1.9%; Outperformed market (5% event probability)

  • PBF Energy stock rallied 20% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which gained 1.9%.
  • Returns of 20% or higher over 10-day period on 123 occasions out of 2331 (5%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 71 of these 123 instances (58%).

Twenty-One Days: PBF 43%, vs. S&P 500 3.9%; Outperformed market (3% event probability)

  • PBF Energy stock rallied 43% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which gained 3.9%.
  • Returns of 43% or higher over 21-day period on 59 occasions out of 2320 (3%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 23 of these 59 instances (39%).

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Returns Apr 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 PBF Return 2% 91% -11%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -5% 103%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% -6% 269%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/4/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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