Paycom Software Stock To $164?
Paycom Software (PAYC) stock has fallen by 21.4% in less than a month, from $158.94 on 12th Jan, 2026 to $124.94 now. What comes next? We believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Read Buy or Sell Paycom Software Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, PAYC stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 68%, with median peak return reaching 99%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 20.3% |
| 3M | 41.3% |
| 6M | 27.0% |
| 12M | 68.2% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
PAYC had 3 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 99% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 286 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -15% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | PAYC Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | PAYC | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 68% | 99% | -15% | 286 | ||||
| 11012023 | -44% | -4% | 41% | 40% | -6% | 365 | ||
| 3112020 | -31% | -16% | 77% | 112% | -25% | 286 | ||
| 2052016 | -31% | -8% | 68% | 99% | -15% | 262 | ||
Paycom Software Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 9.7% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 16.0% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 32.1% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 166.4 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 101.4 |
Not sure if you can take a call on PAYC stock? Consider portfolio approach
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