Paycom Software Stock To $213?
Paycom Software (PAYC) stock has fallen by 20.7% in less than a month, from $206.86 on 10/21/2025 to $164.01 now. What comes next? As it turns out, we believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, PAYC stock passes basic quality checks. The stock has returned (median) 68% in one year, and 99% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, PAYC provides cloud-based human capital management software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized U.S. companies, offering talent acquisition, applicant tracking, background checks, onboarding, and tax credit services.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Paycom Software Stock to see the full picture.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. Should you buy one stock you like or build a portfolio designed to win across cycles? Our numbers show that the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has turned stock-picking uncertainty into market-beating consistency. This portfolio is incorporated in the asset allocation strategy of Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager and Trefis partner — whose asset allocation framework yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 20.3% |
| 3M | 41.3% |
| 6M | 27.0% |
| 12M | 68.2% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
PAYC had 3 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 99% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 286 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -15% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | PAYC Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | PAYC | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 68% | 99% | -15% | 286 | ||||
| 11012023 | -44% | -4% | 41% | 40% | -6% | 365 | ||
| 3112020 | -31% | -16% | 77% | 112% | -25% | 286 | ||
| 2052016 | -31% | -8% | 68% | 99% | -15% | 262 | ||
Paycom Software Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 10.2% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 17.6% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 28.5% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 166.1 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 154.9 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.