Paramount Global stock (NASDAQ:PARA) declined by about 5% over the last week (five trading days), underperforming the S&P 500, which gained about 1.5% over the same period. However, the stock has outperformed a bit over the last month, rising by 2% compared to the S&P 500 which remains down by over 4% over the same period. There are a couple of factors that have driven Paramount stock in recent weeks. Paramount posted a lackluster set of Q1 2022 results, with revenue down 1% year over year and EPS falling 59% year-over-year to $0.58, as the company increased spending on its streaming operations. However, Paramount’s streaming business is gaining traction, with its total global streaming subscriber base rising to 62 million for the quarter, up from 56 million in Q4 2021. Separately, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway recently indicated in a securities filing that it has acquired a $2.6 billion stake in Paramount. This could be a sign that Paramount stock – which currently trades at just about 12x projected 2022 earnings, might be a decent value stock.
However, now that PARA stock has seen a rise of about 5% over the last week, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly equal chance of a rise or a decline in Paramount stock over the next week. Out of 239 instances in the last ten years that PARA stock saw a five-day rise of 5% or more, 125 of them resulted in PARA stock rising over the subsequent week. This historical pattern reflects 125 out of 239, or about 52% chance of a rise in PARA stock over the coming week, implying a relatively neutral near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on Paramount Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data
- After moving -5% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 52% of the occasions.
- After moving -4% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 46% of the occasions
- After moving 2% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 58% of the occasions.
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|S&P 500 Return||-1%||-14%||84%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||1%||-18%||224%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/6/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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