Should Mosaic Stock Holders Look At CF Industries Instead?
Mosaic (MOS) stock has lost 42% over the past twelve months, while CF Industries stock has returned 32%. Investors buy both fertilizer makers for the same reason: farmers need the product and the global supply of nitrogen and phosphate is tight. Yet their underlying businesses differ. Mosaic sells phosphate and potash, while CF sells nitrogen. Which of the two is actually earning more from short supply?
CF Industries Saw Prices Rise, Mosaic Saw Costs Rise
CF is earning more, and management at each company detailed the market dynamics on their latest earnings calls. On August 6, 2026, CF executives noted that global prices rose significantly. Supply was already tight, and the conflict with Iran disrupted it further. Management expects the nitrogen market to stay tight into 2027.
Mosaic outlined a different problem on its own call a day earlier. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the global flow of sulfur, one of Mosaic’s raw materials. Management called spot sulfur prices unsustainably high, though Mosaic negotiated its third-quarter U.S. sulfur supply at a price considerably below the spot market. Mosaic has curtailed phosphate production in the U.S. and Brazil. The company sold 1.4 million tonnes of phosphate in the second quarter and guided 1.1 million to 1.4 million tonnes for the third.
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Mosaic Is Cutting Costs, CF Industries Is Returning Cash
Mosaic’s debt equals 102% of its market value, against 21% for CF. A shareholder waiting for phosphate to recover is also relying on Mosaic to carry that debt in the meantime.
During the August 5 call, Mosaic management stated the company will spend more cash than it takes in during 2026. Mosaic took a term loan to replace short-term borrowing. Executives said they expected debt to hold steady in the third quarter and fall a little in the fourth, and Mosaic has not yet reported the third quarter. The company is cutting expenses. Its selling and administrative costs were down 20% from a year earlier.
CF is handing cash back instead. The CF board raised the quarterly dividend by 20% in July, and the company’s share count has fallen 29% since the start of 2021.
Is Mosaic Stock Cheaper Than CF Industries Stock?
Measured against sales, yes. Mosaic trades at 0.5 times its sales of the past twelve months, against 2.3 times for CF.
But Mosaic earns very little on those sales. Mosaic recorded an operating margin of 2.7% over the past twelve months, against 39% for CF. Mosaic reported a net loss equal to 5.2% of its sales, while CF kept 27% of its sales as net profit. CF also saw its sales grow faster over that period. Sales increased by 20.0% for CF against 8.8% for Mosaic, though Mosaic’s latest quarter was down from a year earlier.
On these measures CF comes out ahead, with faster growth, wider margins, and far less debt. Mosaic remains the cheaper stock against sales, and in potash its management called the market balanced and affirmed its 2026 potash production guide. Two results in Mosaic’s upcoming third-quarter report could change that picture. One is phosphate sales at the top of its 1.1 million to 1.4 million tonne guide. The other is a sulfur cost below the $700 to $710 per ton it guided.
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Choosing between Mosaic and a rival settles one position in a portfolio. When the advisor who built your plan moves on, it is a natural moment to ask whether the plan still fits the life you have now. Glenn Caldicott, CIO of our Boston-based partner firm Empirical Asset Management, an SEC-registered investment adviser, offers a free review of your holdings, fees and income plan.