Can Pan American Silver Stock Jump 50%?

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Pan American Silver (PAAS) stock sits 40.2% below its February 27, 2026 high. Whether it can jump from here depends on its cash. Big rises are normal for this miner. In a typical year over the last ten, the stock’s largest climb was 79%, and in five of those years it climbed 50% or more. A 50% jump from the October 22 close of $41.07 would take the shares to about $62, still below the February high. Its free cash flow yield of 7.5%, compared with 4.3% for the median S&P 500 company, marks either a bargain or a business the market expects to shrink. So is Pan American’s cash still growing?

Pan American Silver’s Free Cash Flow Nearly Doubled

Pan American produced $1.3 billion of free cash flow over the twelve months to June 2026. That is up from $683 million a year earlier and only $115 million two years prior. Shareholders own a slice of that cash whether or not it is paid out, just as they own a slice of the profit. If the market comes to give that cash more credit, the share price could rise to reflect it.

The company mines silver and gold, and management said higher metal prices have increased its profitability from a year earlier. The operating margin reached 39.2% over the twelve months to June, up from 22.3% a year earlier. Capital spending took 23.1% of the cash from operations over the same twelve-month period. Pan American also holds more cash than debt, $1.71 billion against $841 million at the end of June, and its operating income covered its interest 21.8 times.

Why Investors Doubt Pan American Silver’s Cash

The stock price appears to assume cash will shrink, and the second quarter gave investors reasons to worry. On the August 13 call, management said metal prices fell sharply in the quarter and costs went up. The operating margin dropped to 38.0% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 48.5% in the first.

Gold output also fell short. Production of about 166,000 ounces in the second quarter came in below the outlook issued in February. Management now expects full-year gold at the low end of its 700,000 to 750,000 ounce range. At the Jacobina mine, measures taken against seismic events, such as leaving larger pillars, leave that mine’s output about 10,000 ounces below the low end of its original guide of 181,000 to 191,000 ounces. Management expects gold output to improve over the rest of the year, weighted to the fourth quarter. That remains a forecast, not a result.

Will Pan American Silver’s Cash Keep Growing?

That is the open question. The $1.30 billion of twelve-month free cash flow is slightly below the $1.31 billion at the end of March, meaning growth stopped in the latest quarter. Second-quarter free cash flow was $221 million, down from $234 million a year earlier, after the company paid $205 million in income tax. Management expects the second quarter to be the year’s highest for taxes paid.

Debt is the smaller question. Pan American’s credit facility remains undrawn, and management puts total available liquidity at about $3.2 billion. Free cash flow and gold production are the figures to watch in Pan American’s third-quarter report.

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