Can Oshkosh Stock Compound Your Money?
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Oshkosh (OSK) stock returned 20.9% over the past year, compared with 14.9% for the S&P 500. Over the last six months, however, the stock lost 3.5%. The maker of Pierce fire trucks continued to buy back shares throughout that period, and it operated with 5.6% fewer diluted shares over the latest twelve months than it did three years earlier. Shareholders may be betting that the shrinking share count keeps compounding their money. So how much has the smaller share count added to each share’s earnings?
Oshkosh’s Per-Share Earnings Barely Moved In Three Years
Very little so far. By buying back stock, Oshkosh has only kept each share’s earnings from falling alongside its profit. Oshkosh earned less in the twelve months to September 2026 than it did three years earlier, while its diluted earnings per share slipped only to $7.92, from $7.94. Each year’s profit was divided across a shrinking base of shares, which dropped from 65.9 million to 62.2 million. The trajectory was uneven, as earnings per share reached $10.25 in the twelve months to September 2025 before retreating.
The buybacks cushioned a decline rather than generating growth, and Oshkosh spent more on them in the latest year. Over the last twelve months, repurchases, minus the cost of employee stock awards, amounted to 3.4% of its market value. The share count fell 3.6% during that year, marking the largest reduction of the three.
Oshkosh Funds Its Buyback From Free Cash Flow
Oshkosh generates more than enough cash to cover its repurchases. Over the twelve months to September, free cash flow totaled $0.94 billion, roughly double the $0.48 billion the company spent on combined buybacks and dividends. It did not borrow to fund those payouts: total debt was lower at the end of September than a year earlier.
The remaining debt is modest relative to what the business earns. Net debt amounted to about half of a year’s EBITDA, and operating income covered the interest bill 6.1 times.
Access, the largest of Oshkosh’s three businesses, was the only segment to grow sales in the third quarter. Sales rose 21% from a year earlier, with management saying that national rental companies led the quarter’s sales. On October 29, management also raised its 2026 free cash flow forecast to a range of $600 million to $700 million. That estimate remains below the $0.94 billion of free cash flow recorded over the twelve months to September.
Profit Is Falling Faster Than Oshkosh’s Share Count
During the twelve months to September, Oshkosh’s net income dropped 25.2%. This decline was far steeper than the reduction in its share count, resulting in a drop of more than a fifth in diluted earnings per share. The company’s 2026 outlook is also lower. On October 29, Oshkosh cut the midpoint of its diluted earnings per share forecast for the year to $8.50, down from $10.50 in July.
In that same update, management said it was resetting expectations for how fast fire truck output improves within the Vocational business. Management said that third-quarter sales in the Vocational segment fell mainly on lower fire truck volume, with production and shipment volume coming in roughly 20% below the prior year. Separately, the company said its outlook for Access demand is improving.
If profit continues to fall faster than the share count shrinks, earnings per share will still decline, only by a smaller margin, as they did over the latest twelve months. If cash generation weakens instead, Oshkosh will have less money to spend on shrinking the share count at all.
For now, Oshkosh’s cash covers its shareholder returns, while its profit continues to fall. Vocational sales, where fire truck output shows up, are the number to watch when Oshkosh next reports, expected in January 2027.
Beyond OSK: A Systematic Way To Invest
Before you decide on OSK, consider a better choice. Since its September 2020 launch, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000, without betting on one stock.
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