Down 21%, Is Oscar Health Stock a Buy Now?
Oscar Health (OSCR) stock has fallen by 21.4% in less than a month, from $22.47 on 10/7/2025 to $17.66 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, OSCR stock passes basic quality checks, and has returned (median) 5.1% in one year, and 39% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, OSCR provides health insurance plans including Individual, Family, Small Group, and Medicare Advantage, using a technology-driven platform to enhance engagement between providers, payors, and members.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Oscar Health Stock to see the full picture.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. That is one way to look at stocks. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -5.1% |
| 3M | -5.9% |
| 6M | -22.1% |
| 12M | 5.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
OSCR had 8 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 39% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 73.5 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -61% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | OSCR Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | OSCR | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 5% | 39% | -61% | 74 | ||||
| 8042025 | -35% | 6% | 30% | 62% | -0% | 64 | ||
| 11072024 | -33% | 4% | 32% | 65% | -15% | 334 | ||
| 6282024 | -30% | 3% | 5% | 47% | -27% | 83 | ||
| 9262022 | -38% | -14% | 14% | 101% | -55% | 260 | ||
| 5092022 | -32% | -12% | 5% | 22% | -67% | 98 | ||
| 11122021 | -31% | 8% | -77% | 0% | -81% | 0 | ||
| 7202021 | -32% | 2% | -74% | 3% | -80% | 1 | ||
| 4212021 | -35% | 8% | -61% | 30% | -74% | 47 | ||
Oscar Health Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 48.3% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 52.3% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 11.5% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -5.4 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 149.4 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.