How Oracle Stock Slipped -30%
Between November 11, 2025, and February 9, 2026, Oracle (ORCL)’s stock tumbled 34%, despite solid margin gains and slight revenue growth. Market jitters over AI infrastructure doubts, delayed OpenAI projects, and shifting strategies outweighed analyst upgrades, reshaping investor confidence.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 11112025 | 2092026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 235.5 | 156.6 | -33.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,018.0 | 61,017.0 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.1% | 25.3% | 19.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 53.5 | 29.1 | -45.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,826.0 | 2,864.0 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -33.5% |
So what is happening here? The stock price dropped 34%, driven by a modest 3.4% revenue rise, a strong 20% margin boost, but a sharp 46% decline in the P/E multiple. Here’s what’s behind these shifts…
Here Is Why Oracle Stock Moved
- Q2 FY26 Earnings: Q2 EPS beat, revenue miss. Higher CapEx guidance caused concern & stock drop.
- AI Infrastructure Doubt: Concerns over AI spending, rising debt, and AI replacing software hit stock.
- Analyst Upgrade: D.A. Davidson upgrade to Buy, citing OpenAI’s shift & OCI validation, caused stock surge.
- OpenAI Project Delays: Reports of OpenAI data center delays & funding withdrawal hurt investor confidence.
- Ampere Sale & Strategy: Sold Ampere, shifted to chip neutrality, aiding Q2 EPS and refining cloud strategy.
Our Current Assesment Of ORCL Stock
Opinion: We currently find ORCL stock fairly priced. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell ORCL Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: A good way to gauge risk with Oracle is to check its declines during major market sell-offs. It plunged nearly 77% in the Dot-Com Bubble, 41% in the Global Financial Crisis, and about 40% during the Inflation Shock. Even the less severe downturns like the 2018 Correction and Covid pandemic saw drops close to 19% and 29%, respectively. Strong fundamentals matter, but when the market turns sour, Oracle still faces sizable sell-offs.
Think this decline in ORCL stock is a buying opportunity? Maybe it is, but single-stock investments can be quite risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.