How Will Oracle Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, Sep 9, 2025. Historically, Oracle’s stock has seen negative one-day returns after earnings announcements. Over the past five years, the stock has dropped in 55% of instances, with a median decline of 3.2% and a maximum one-day loss of 13.5%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can offer an advantage. There are two primary approaches you can consider:

• Pre-earnings positioning: Analyze the historical probabilities and take a position before the earnings release.
• Post-earnings positioning: Examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings are released, and then adjust your position accordingly.

Analysts project Oracle’s earnings to be $1.48 per share on revenue of $15.03 billion. This is an increase from the same quarter last year, when earnings were $1.39 per share on sales of $13.31 billion. This anticipated growth is largely attributed to the increased adoption of Oracle’s cloud services, particularly due to its success with generative AI workloads.

Looking at the fundamentals, Oracle currently has a market capitalization of $626 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $57 billion in revenue, with operating profits of $18 billion and a net income of $12 billion. That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – AVGO Stock To $600?

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

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Oracle’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 9 positive returns = 11%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.2%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

ORCL Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

ORCL Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Oracle stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Oracle. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

ORCL Correlation With Peer Earnings

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