ONTO Stock Surges 22% With A 6-day Winning Spree On Bullish AI Outlook
Onto Innovation (ONTO) – a provider of semiconductor defect inspection and optical metrology tools. – hit 6-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 22%. The company market cap has surged by about $2.0 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $11 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 39.5% compared to 1.4% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Needham Price Target Hike & Positive Investor Update
- Get Paid 9.0% to Buy INTU at a 30% Discount – Here’s How
- What Could Set Palantir Technologies Stock on Fire
- Amazon.com Stock on the Edge: 3 Threats You Need to Know
- Cash Machine Trading Cheap – Webull Stock Set to Run?
- Visa Stock Pullback: A Chance to Ride the Uptrend
- McDonald’s Stock Pays Out $79 Bil – Investors Take Note
- Needham Raised Price Target to $200
- Company Projects Strong 2026 Growth Driven by AI
- Impact: Sharp Price Increase, Increased Investor Confidence
[2] Broad Semiconductor Sector Strength
- Semiconductor Sales Rise Year-Over-Year
- AI Driving Unprecedented Demand
- Impact: Macro Tailwinds, Sustained Institutional Accumulation
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is a near-equal mix of good and bad in ONTO stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell ONTO).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this 22% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To catch the next winner before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has flagged 5 new opportunities that haven not surged yet.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for ONTO stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | ONTO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1.1% | -0.1% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | 22.1% | 0.3% |
| 1M (21D) | 42.8% | 2.1% |
| 3M (63D) | 62.4% | 4.7% |
| YTD 2026 | 39.5% | 1.4% |
| 2025 | -5.3% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 9.0% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 124.6% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has ONTO behaved after prior drops? See ONTO Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 102 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 49 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 38 | 16 |
| 4D | 17 | 11 |
| 5D | 22 | 12 |
| 6D | 0 | 5 |
| 7D or more | 25 | 5 |
| Total >=3 D | 102 | 49 |
Key Financials for Onto Innovation (ONTO)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $815.9 Mil | $987.3 Mil |
| Operating Income | $116.1 Mil | $187.1 Mil |
| Net Income | $121.2 Mil | $201.7 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $253.6 Mil | $218.2 Mil |
| Operating Income | $38.5 Mil | $27.8 Mil |
| Net Income | $33.9 Mil | $28.2 Mil |
While ONTO stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.