How Will Nucor Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Nucor (NYSE:NUE) is set to report its earnings on Monday, April 27, 2026. The company has $49 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $32 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.7 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Nucor’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 4.3%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/26/2026 | -2.3% | 1.9% | -1.2% |
| 10/27/2025 | 5.4% | 2.7% | 8.4% |
| 7/28/2025 | -2.7% | -5.2% | 2.4% |
| 4/28/2025 | 1.9% | 3.4% | -6.6% |
| 1/27/2025 | 3.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% |
| 10/21/2024 | -6.5% | -5.4% | -7.3% |
| 7/22/2024 | -1.1% | -2.4% | -12.2% |
| 4/22/2024 | -8.9% | -8.6% | -10.2% |
| 1/29/2024 | 6.9% | 3.2% | 8.8% |
| 10/23/2023 | 4.8% | 6.0% | 12.3% |
| 7/24/2023 | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 4/20/2023 | -1.5% | -4.8% | -11.0% |
| 1/26/2023 | -1.7% | 4.0% | -3.3% |
| 10/20/2022 | 8.5% | 8.5% | 13.7% |
| 7/21/2022 | 9.1% | 8.1% | 21.1% |
| 4/21/2022 | -8.3% | -8.5% | -31.7% |
| 1/27/2022 | 3.2% | 16.0% | 36.1% |
| 10/21/2021 | -2.9% | 2.9% | 6.2% |
| 7/22/2021 | 0.5% | 10.2% | 24.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 4.0% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -5.3% | -8.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.1% | 16.0% | 36.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.9% | -8.6% | -31.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 1.1% | 38.9% | 76.8% |
| 3Y History | -16.0% | 20.8% | 31.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Nucor stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Nucor. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUE Earnings Dates | NUE | STLD | CLF | CMC |
| 1/26/2026 | -2.3% | N/A* | N/A* | 8.1% |
| 10/27/2025 | 5.4% | 2.7% | -14.9% | 9.1% |
| 7/28/2025 | -2.7% | -1.5% | 5.6% | N/A* |
| 4/28/2025 | 1.9% | 4.4% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 1/27/2025 | 3.8% | -0.3% | N/A* | -1.3% |
| 10/21/2024 | -6.5% | -1.2% | N/A* | -2.3% |
| 7/22/2024 | -1.1% | -1.1% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 1/29/2024 | 6.9% | 0.3% | N/A* | 1.2% |
| 10/23/2023 | 4.8% | -0.5% | N/A* | -8.3% |
| 7/24/2023 | 3.7% | -0.2% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 4/20/2023 | -1.5% | N/A* | N/A* | 5.9% |
| 1/26/2023 | -1.7% | N/A* | N/A* | 10.3% |
| 10/20/2022 | 8.5% | N/A* | N/A* | 2.1% |
| 1/27/2022 | 3.2% | 2.3% | N/A* | -6.6% |
| 10/21/2021 | -2.9% | N/A* | N/A* | 2.7% |
| 7/22/2021 | 0.5% | -0.5% | N/A* | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -28.1% | -100.0% | -26.2% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after NUE
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