How Will NetApp Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 28, 2026. The company has $28 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.7 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.2 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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NetApp’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 4.5%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -3.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/26/2026 | -0.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% |
| 11/25/2025 | -2.0% | 4.0% | -2.7% |
| 8/27/2025 | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% |
| 5/29/2025 | -0.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -15.6% | -22.3% | -25.2% |
| 11/21/2024 | -3.4% | -3.2% | -6.8% |
| 8/28/2024 | -9.6% | -11.4% | -8.1% |
| 5/30/2024 | 3.4% | 4.3% | 11.8% |
| 2/29/2024 | 18.2% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| 11/28/2023 | 14.6% | 16.0% | 12.9% |
| 8/23/2023 | -1.3% | -0.1% | -0.7% |
| 5/31/2023 | 8.5% | 7.0% | 15.1% |
| 2/22/2023 | 0.6% | -1.9% | -6.5% |
| 11/29/2022 | -5.8% | -12.1% | -16.3% |
| 8/24/2022 | 7.9% | -0.9% | -12.8% |
| 6/1/2022 | 0.5% | -3.4% | -13.4% |
| 2/23/2022 | -5.7% | -3.6% | 2.6% |
| 11/30/2021 | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| 8/25/2021 | 4.7% | 8.6% | 13.8% |
| 6/2/2021 | 2.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -3.4% | -8.1% |
| Max Positive | 18.2% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -22.3% | -25.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 9.6% | 11.6% | 33.8% |
| 3Y History | 13.8% | 35.6% | 39.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of NetApp stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before NetApp. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| NTAP Earnings Dates | NTAP | AMZN |
| 2/26/2026 | -0.1% | -6.6% |
| 11/25/2025 | -2.0% | 3.1% |
| 8/27/2025 | 4.5% | -2.1% |
| 5/29/2025 | -0.1% | 8.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -15.6% | -12.6% |
| 11/21/2024 | -3.4% | 6.4% |
| 8/28/2024 | -9.6% | -7.2% |
| 2/29/2024 | 18.2% | 11.0% |
| 8/23/2023 | -1.3% | 5.1% |
| 2/22/2023 | 0.6% | -15.2% |
| 8/24/2022 | 7.9% | 9.4% |
| 2/23/2022 | -5.7% | 4.3% |
| 8/25/2021 | 4.7% | -8.4% |
| CORRELATION | 39.2% |
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