How Will NetApp Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. The company has $37 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.9 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $1.7 billion in operating profits and net income of $1.3 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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NetApp’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 6.2%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -3.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 5/28/2026 | 22.4% | 25.6% | 8.9% |
| 2/26/2026 | -0.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| 11/25/2025 | -2.0% | 4.0% | -2.7% |
| 8/27/2025 | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% |
| 5/29/2025 | -0.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -15.6% | -22.3% | -25.2% |
| 11/21/2024 | -3.4% | -3.2% | -6.8% |
| 8/28/2024 | -9.6% | -11.4% | -8.1% |
| 5/30/2024 | 3.4% | 4.3% | 11.8% |
| 2/29/2024 | 18.2% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| 11/28/2023 | 14.6% | 16.0% | 12.9% |
| 8/23/2023 | -1.3% | -0.1% | -0.7% |
| 5/31/2023 | 8.5% | 7.0% | 15.1% |
| 2/22/2023 | 0.6% | -1.9% | -6.5% |
| 11/29/2022 | -5.8% | -12.1% | -16.3% |
| 8/24/2022 | 7.9% | -0.9% | -12.8% |
| 6/1/2022 | 0.5% | -3.4% | -13.4% |
| 2/23/2022 | -5.7% | -3.6% | 2.6% |
| 11/30/2021 | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -3.4% | -8.1% |
| Max Positive | 22.4% | 25.6% | 17.9% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -22.3% | -25.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 5D_21D shows the strongest correlation here: if the 5D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the same direction over the following 21D window. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -3.9% | -7.5% | 16.7% |
| 3Y History | -2.8% | -8.6% | 19.3% |
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