Nokia Stock Looks Set For Rally After Rough Month

+19.20%
Upside
4.87
Market
5.80
Trefis
NOK: Nokia logo
NOK
Nokia

Nokia stock (NYSE: NOK) is down around 10% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing worse than the S&P 500, which was down 6.2% over this period. However, if you look at the change over the last five and ten days, there has been some pull back and the stock has performed better against the broader markets. Nokia’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $5.18 billion in Q2 ’21 to $5.73 billion in Q2 ’22. Additionally, COGS and other operating expenses rose at a slower rate, and EBIT margin rose from 9.1% to 9.6% over this period. Due to this, net income rose and EPS came in higher at $0.08 in Q2 ’22, against $0.06 in Q2 ’21.

Now, is NOK stock set to continue its pull back after the poor monthly performance? We believe that there is a decent 60% chance of a rise in NOK stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NOK Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Nokia (NOK) Stock Return. 

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  6. Forecast Of The Day: Nokia’s Licensing Revenue

Twenty-One Day: NOK -9.8%, vs. S&P500 -6.2%; Underperformed market

(11% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • NOK stock lost 9.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 6.2%
  • A change of -9.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 11% likelihood event, which has occurred 267 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 267 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 159 occasions
  • This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NOK 1.6%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Outperformed market

(39% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • NOK stock gained 1.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.3%
  • A change of 1.6% or more over ten trading days is a 39% likelihood event, which has occurred 987 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 987 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 473 occasions
  • This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NOK 5.4%, vs. S&P500 2.9%; Outperformed market

(13% likelihood event; 46% probability of rise over next five days)

  • NOK stock gained 5.4% over a five-day trading period ending 10/6/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 2.9% over this period.
  • A change of 5.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 13% likelihood event, which has occurred 338 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 338 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 154 occasions
  • This points to a 46% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Oct 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 NOK Return 3% -29% -8%
 S&P 500 Return 2% -23% 63%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 4% -24% 203%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/7/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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