What’s Next For Nokia Stock After 7% Drop In The Past Month?

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NOK: Nokia logo
NOK
Nokia

Nokia stock (NYSE: NOK) is down around 7% in just one month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down just a little over 4%. If you look at the change over the last five days, too, the stock has returned -0.2%, underperforming the market. Nokia reported steady FY ’21 earnings earlier this month, with revenue rising from $25 billion in FY ’20 to $25.4 billion in FY ’21. Gross margins rose from 37.5% to 39.8% and operating margins rose from 4% to 9.7% over this period. This helped EPS jump from -$0.51 in FY ’20 to $0.33 in FY ’21.

Now, is Nokia stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a decent 56% chance of a rise in Nokia stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NOK Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about how Nokia makes money, see Nokia (NOK) Revenues: How Does NOK Make Money?

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Twenty-One Day: NOK -7%, vs. S&P500 -4.2%; Underperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • NOK stock lost 7% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 4.2%
  • A change of -7% or more over twenty-one trading days is an 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 460 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 460 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 258 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NOK 3.6%, vs. S&P500 2.4%; Outperformed market

(28% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • NOK stock rose 3.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.4%
  • A change of 3.6% or more over ten trading days is a 28% likelihood event, which has occurred 701 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 701 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 345 occasions
  • This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NOK -0.2%, vs. S&P500 1.5%; Underperformed market

(50% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)

  • NOK stock lost 0.2% over a five-day trading period ending 2/4/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.5%
  • A change of -0.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 50% likelihood event, which has occurred 1251 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1251 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 636 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Feb 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 NOK Return -3% -8% 19%
 S&P 500 Return -1% -6% 100%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -1% -10% 254%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/7/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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