Nike Stock Has One Thing Left To Prove

Nike (NKE) is losing sales in Greater China faster than anywhere else it sells, and management has not yet put a limit on the decline. Holders have already had a hard year: the stock has lost about 51% over the past twelve months, while the S&P 500 returned 17.1%.

How Steep Is Nike’s Sales Fall In Greater China?

Greater China revenue fell 26% on a currency-neutral basis (22% as reported) in Nike’s fiscal first quarter of 2027, which ended August 31, 2026. North America, by contrast, grew 2%. Nike’s total revenue was $11.2 billion, a decline of 4% from a year earlier. China is shrinking far faster than the company as a whole.

On Nike’s fiscal first-quarter 2027 call on October 1, 2026, four of the eight analysts who asked questions raised China.

Nike Expects Its Revenue To Shrink Further

Management expects Nike’s revenue to decline in the high single-digit range in fiscal 2027. That would be a sharp change from fiscal 2026, when revenue was $46.4 billion, up 0.2% from the year before. Nike’s revenue fell 4% in the first quarter, less than the full-year forecast, which suggests the quarters still to come will be weaker.

Management also expects earnings before interest and taxes to fall by a greater percentage than revenue. It guided adjusted earnings of $1.15 to $1.35 a share for fiscal 2027, against the roughly $1.65 analysts had estimated.

What Has Nike’s Management Said About China?

Management has said it is carrying out what it calls a marketplace reset in China, aimed at making Nike a more premium brand there. It expects the cleanup of its online sales in China, which it calls its digital cleanup, to take multiple seasons. It has said revenue and profitability in China will be hit in the near term.

Management has also pointed to what is working. It said its running business continued to grow in the quarter, and Nike’s first collection made for China launches in October. Nike has said it will give a clearer view of its long-term growth at its Investor Day in November.

Management has not given a figure for China. It said it will not guide by region, but that its actions will dampen China further compared with the first quarter. A decline in Greater China smaller than 26% on a currency-neutral basis in fiscal Q2 2027 would show the reset costing Nike less than management warned.

Does This Mean You Should Act On NKE?

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