Management Set A Higher Bar For Texas Instruments; Does The Chart Agree?
Texas Instruments (TXN) forecast higher third-quarter sales and earnings on July 22, 2026, and the stock has since risen, though by less than the S&P 500. A forecast is only management’s word until buyers act on it, so the share price is worth checking before you take the guide at face value. Have buyers of Texas Instruments stock been backing that forecast?
Does Texas Instruments’ Chart Back The Forecast?
Only partly. Texas Instruments stock is in an uptrend on its own chart, but it has trailed the market since the forecast came out.
The shares closed at $294.90 on October 5, 2026. That is above $270.73, their average closing price over the last 50 trading days. That average is, in turn, above $247.77, the average close over the last 200 trading days. A stock above both averages, with the shorter one on top, is in an uptrend.
The return since the release is weaker. Texas Instruments gave the quarter’s results and the forecast in one release, so buyers were reacting to both. The stock fell 2.2% over the two sessions around it, while the S&P 500 fell 1.3%. From the July 22 close immediately following the post-market release through October 5, the stock is up 0.8%, compared to a 3.5% gain for the S&P 500. So the stock is above both averages today, but Texas Instruments has not beaten the market since management spoke.
Texas Instruments Forecast Higher Sales And Earnings
Management guided to third-quarter 2026 revenue of $5.65 billion to $6.15 billion. That quarter has since ended, and its results are still to come. The middle of that range, $5.9 billion, compares with the $5.5 billion the company reported for the second quarter. The second quarter had itself beaten the plan: revenue grew 23% from a year earlier and came in above management’s own range.
Management credited that result to continued growth in its industrial and data center markets and faster growth in automotive. Data center revenue doubled from a year earlier. For the third quarter, management said the vast majority of the expected growth is more units sold, with almost nothing coming from price.
Management forecast higher earnings too. It guided to $2.23 to $2.57 a share for the third quarter, against the $2.14 it reported for the second.
What Could Push Texas Instruments Stock Higher?
Higher prices and growth in Texas Instruments’ industrial market could, if the third- and fourth-quarter results bear out what management said on the July call. Texas Instruments has started increasing prices. Management said in July that almost none of the effect was in its third-quarter forecast, and that it expected the increases to continue into the fourth quarter.
The industrial market is the other place to look. Management said its industrial market is still below its 2022 peak, and it sees room to grow there. But you are paying 44.4 times trailing twelve-month earnings for the stock, compared to a trailing P/E of 21.5 for the S&P 500.
So management’s forecast and the uptrend agree today, and the lag behind the market is the weak spot. Third-quarter revenue above the top of management’s range would show demand still running ahead of what the company planned for. Fourth-quarter guidance with a visible lift from price would show the increases are holding. A close below the average of the last 50 trading days would be the first sign that buyers have stopped backing the forecast.
How To Act On TXN?
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