How Will Nike Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Nike (NYSE:NKE) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, June 30, 2026. The company has $64 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $47 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.8 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.3 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
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Nike’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 35% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 25% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 6.7%, and median of the 13 negative returns = -6.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/31/2026 | -15.5% | -18.3% | -16.0% |
| 12/18/2025 | -10.5% | -7.2% | -0.3% |
| 9/30/2025 | 6.4% | -1.2% | -6.3% |
| 6/26/2025 | 15.2% | 22.4% | 25.2% |
| 3/20/2025 | -5.5% | -8.4% | -21.9% |
| 12/19/2024 | -0.2% | -0.9% | -3.6% |
| 10/1/2024 | -6.8% | -9.4% | -14.2% |
| 6/27/2024 | -20.0% | -19.9% | -21.9% |
| 3/21/2024 | -6.9% | -6.8% | -6.6% |
| 12/21/2023 | -11.8% | -11.4% | -17.8% |
| 9/28/2023 | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% |
| 6/29/2023 | -2.6% | -7.9% | -2.6% |
| 3/21/2023 | -4.9% | -6.2% | -0.9% |
| 12/20/2022 | 12.2% | 11.4% | 24.3% |
| 9/29/2022 | -12.8% | -5.4% | -1.6% |
| 6/27/2022 | -7.0% | -5.6% | -2.4% |
| 3/21/2022 | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% |
| 12/20/2021 | 6.1% | 6.0% | -9.1% |
| 9/23/2021 | -6.3% | -9.0% | 2.4% |
| 6/24/2021 | 15.5% | 18.3% | 23.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 9.1% | 16.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -7.5% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 15.5% | 22.4% | 25.2% |
| Max Negative | -20.0% | -19.9% | -21.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 20.7% | 3.9% | 8.5% |
| 3Y History | 9.6% | 9.7% | 18.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Nike stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Nike. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| NKE Earnings Dates | NKE | LULU |
| 3/31/2026 | -15.5% | -3.9% |
| 12/18/2025 | -10.5% | 15.0% |
| 9/30/2025 | 6.4% | -13.7% |
| 6/26/2025 | 15.2% | -30.0% |
| 12/19/2024 | -0.2% | 8.3% |
| 6/27/2024 | -20.0% | 0.0% |
| 12/21/2023 | -11.8% | 10.0% |
| 9/28/2023 | 6.7% | -0.6% |
| 12/20/2022 | 12.2% | -18.0% |
| 9/29/2022 | -12.8% | 2.0% |
| 12/20/2021 | 6.1% | -11.1% |
| 9/23/2021 | -6.3% | 13.4% |
| CORRELATION | -65.6% |
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