Strong July Deliveries Could Drive Nio Stock’s Rally

NIO: Nio logo

Chinese luxury electric vehicle maker Nio stock (NYSE:NIO) published its delivery numbers for July, indicating that it sold a total of 20,462 EVs for the month, marking an increase of almost 104% year-over-year and roughly double the June figure of 10,707 vehicles.  Nio’s performance was considerably better than rival Xpeng, which delivered 11,008 vehicles, although it continued to fall well behind rival Li Auto which delivered 34,134 vehicles for the month, up by 228% versus the last year.

While uptake for Nio’s vehicles was sluggish earlier this year, amid mounting competition from EV bellwether Tesla and Li Auto, as well as slower-than-expected Chinese economic growth following the Covid-19 reopening, Nio has benefited from a couple of factors of late. Firstly, the release of the updated ES6 SUV, which was launched in May, appears to have helped the company. Nio also cut prices on its vehicles by about $4,200 in early June, accounting for close to 10% of the starting price of some vehicles and this could have stimulated demand to a certain extent.

While Nio stock has rallied by about 50% year-to-date, trading at just under $15 per share, it remains about 75% below all-time highs seen in 2021. Does this make the stock worth a look? We think so. Nio has also been refreshing its product lineup this year and this could help to drive sales. Nio also indicated at a recent investor conference that it expects to see an average of 20,000 vehicle deliveries each month over the second half of the year. While the number looked lofty at first, Nio executed well in July and it’s possible that the momentum could hold up. Nio also intends to bolster its gross margins to about 15% by the fourth quarter of this year, driven by new model launches and higher scale.  The stock also presently trades at just about 2x estimated 2023 revenues, which is well below other EV players such as Tesla and Li Auto. See our analysis of Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? for a detailed look at how Nio stock compares with its rivals Li Auto and Xpeng.

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What if you’re looking for a portfolio that aims for long-term growth? Here’s a value portfolio that’s done much better than the market since 2016.

Returns Aug 2023
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 NIO Return -4% 50% 130%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 19% 104%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% 28% 312%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/2/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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