Marriott International Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
Marriott International (NASDAQ:MAR) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, November 2, 2026. The company has a market value of about $105.5 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $26.9 billion in revenue and $4.2 billion in operating profit, with net income of $2.6 billion.
The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has Marriott International Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 55% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 42%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 11 positive 1D returns is 3.2%, and the median of the 9 negative ones is -4.3%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 8.5% and -7.0%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/3/2026 | -7.0% | -5.1% | -8.1% |
| 5/6/2026 | 1.3% | -1.2% | 8.9% |
| 2/10/2026 | 8.5% | 8.7% | -1.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 3.2% | 10.1% | 16.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.2% | -0.4% | 2.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.9% | 10.0% | 6.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | -5.4% | -5.3% | -19.7% |
| 11/4/2024 | -1.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | -4.8% | -9.9% | -4.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | -1.0% | -0.1% | -2.8% |
| 2/13/2024 | -5.6% | -2.4% | 1.2% |
| 11/2/2023 | -1.6% | 2.0% | 11.1% |
| 8/1/2023 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% |
| 5/2/2023 | 5.0% | 4.6% | -1.1% |
| 2/14/2023 | 4.0% | -2.1% | -9.0% |
| 11/3/2022 | -4.3% | -2.2% | 8.5% |
| 8/2/2022 | -0.8% | -0.8% | -3.7% |
| 5/4/2022 | 4.7% | -2.9% | 1.0% |
| 2/15/2022 | 5.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 11/3/2021 | 2.8% | 2.9% | -5.6% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -2.2% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 8.5% | 10.1% | 16.5% |
| Max Negative | -7.0% | -9.9% | -19.7% |
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.32 | -0.28 | -0.14 |
| 3 Years | 0.15 | 0.02 | -0.12 |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) usually reports about 7 days before Marriott International, and has already reported this season. Its stock fell 2.1% on October 27, the day it reported. The table compares Hilton’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Marriott International’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlation is -0.18; the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Marriott International’s. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
| MAR Earnings Date | MAR 1D | HLT 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 8/3/2026 | -7.0% | -2.5% |
| 5/6/2026 | 1.3% | -2.7% |
| 11/4/2025 | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.2% | -2.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | -5.4% | 4.9% |
| 11/4/2024 | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| 5/1/2024 | -1.0% | 3.9% |
| 2/13/2024 | -5.6% | 0.7% |
| 11/2/2023 | -1.6% | 0.7% |
| 8/1/2023 | 1.5% | -0.6% |
| 5/2/2023 | 5.0% | -3.4% |
| 2/14/2023 | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| 11/3/2022 | -4.3% | -0.5% |
| 8/2/2022 | -0.8% | 7.5% |
| 5/4/2022 | 4.7% | -4.2% |
| Correlation | – | -0.18 |
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