NGD Stock Surges 24% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Production Beat
New Gold (NGD) – a gold, silver, and copper mineral exploration and development company – hit 5-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 24%. The company market cap has surged by about $1.9 Bil over the last 5 days, and currently stands at $10.0 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 44.9% compared to 1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Achieved 2025 Production Guidance
- Free Cash Flow Surpassed $530 Million
- Production Targets Met Across All Operations
- Impact: Stock Hit 52-Week High, Increased Investor Confidence
[2] Bullish Gold Price Action & Sector Sentiment
- Spot Gold Surged to New All-Time High
- Analysts Expect Gold to Keep Climbing in 2026
- Impact: Broad Sector-Wide Buying, Technical Breakout for Gold Prices
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in NGD stock given its overall Very Strong operating performance and financial condition. Hence, despite its Very High valuation, the stock appears Attractive but Volatile (For details, see Buy or Sell NGD).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for NGD stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | NGD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 12.3% | 0.5% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | 24.2% | -0.2% |
| 1M (21D) | 43.1% | 1.2% |
| 3M (63D) | 98.7% | 2.6% |
| YTD 2026 | 44.9% | 1.0% |
| 2025 | 251.2% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 69.9% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 49.0% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has NGD behaved after prior drops? See NGD Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 43 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 29 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 29 | 16 |
| 4D | 7 | 5 |
| 5D | 2 | 6 |
| 6D | 2 | 2 |
| 7D or more | 3 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 43 | 29 |
Key Financials for New Gold (NGD)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $786.5 Mil | $924.5 Mil |
| Operating Income | $61.8 Mil | $182.3 Mil |
| Net Income | $-64.5 Mil | $102.6 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $308.4 Mil | $462.5 Mil |
| Operating Income | $106.9 Mil | $233.4 Mil |
| Net Income | $68.6 Mil | $142.3 Mil |
While NGD stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.