NFLX Stock Falls -7.5% With A 6-day Losing Spree On Weak Guidance
Netflix (NFLX) – a streaming service providing TV shows, films, and mobile games. – hit 6-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to a -7.5%. The company market cap has crashed by about $29 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $355 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 10.9% compared to 1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Slower 2026 Revenue Growth Guidance
- Management guided for 11%-13% organic sales growth in 2026, a deceleration from 17% in 2025.
- Q1 2026 guidance for EPS of $0.76 and revenue of $12.16 billion missed analyst expectations.
- Impact: Stock tumbled 5% in after-hours trading on January 20, 2026., Multiple analysts slashed price targets following the earnings call.
[2] Analyst Price Target Downgrades
- Argus Research lowered its price target to $110 from $141.
- Pivotal Research, Goldman Sachs, and Rosenblatt also cut their price targets.
- Impact: Increased negative sentiment surrounding the stock, Stock continued to slide, falling 4.6% the day after earnings.
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in NFLX stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s High valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell NFLX).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -7.5% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for NFLX stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | NFLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -2.1% | 0.5% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | -7.5% | -0.7% |
| 1M (21D) | -11.5% | 1.2% |
| 3M (63D) | -32.7% | 2.6% |
| YTD 2026 | -10.9% | 1.0% |
| 2025 | 5.2% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 83.1% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 65.1% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: NFLX Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 43 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 29 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 29 | 16 |
| 4D | 7 | 5 |
| 5D | 2 | 6 |
| 6D | 2 | 2 |
| 7D or more | 3 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 43 | 29 |
Key Financials for Netflix (NFLX)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $33.7 Bil | $39.0 Bil |
| Operating Income | $7.0 Bil | $10.4 Bil |
| Net Income | $5.4 Bil | $8.7 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $11.1 Bil | $11.5 Bil |
| Operating Income | $3.8 Bil | $3.2 Bil |
| Net Income | $3.1 Bil | $2.5 Bil |
The losing streak NFLX stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.