Is Newmont Stock Poised for a Rally?
Newmont (NEM) stock is at an interesting point right now. It is trading cheap, and if you bet on it, you are betting on a company that’s growing reasonably, is sustaining good cash flow and margin, has low-debt capital structure, and is relatively cheaply valued. But is that enough?
Why Bet On NEM Now?
The primary long thesis is the significant, durable spread between historically high realized gold prices (driven by geopolitical risk and strong central bank buying) and Newmont’s All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC). This dynamic is generating record free cash flow, enabling aggressive debt reduction and share buybacks. The company’s large, geographically diverse portfolio of long-life, Tier 1 assets provides a stable production base to capitalize on these elevated prices.
- Generated a record $1.6 billion in free cash flow in Q3 2025, the fourth consecutive quarter above $1 billion.
- Spot Gold prices are near historic highs (~$5,000-$5,400/oz) with a bullish market balance outlook.
- Strong gold demand is driven by secular trends including central bank buying (~800 tonnes expected in 2026) and investor demand for safe-haven assets.
- The project pipeline, including Ahafo North and Tanami Expansion 2, provides a clear pathway to sustain production levels.
How Do The Fundamentals Look?
- Revenue Growth: 21.3% LTM and 26.2% last 3 year average.
- Operating Margin: Nearly 28.8% 3-year average operating margin.
- No Margin Shock: Newmont has improved in the last 12 months.
- Modest Valuation: Despite these fundamentals, NEM stock trades at a PE multiple of 17.9
Below is a quick comparison of NEM fundamentals with S&P medians.
| NEM | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Materials | – |
| Industry | Gold | – |
| PE Ratio | 17.9 | 24.4 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 21.3% | 6.6% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 26.2% | 5.5% |
| LTM Operating Margin Change | 17.0% | 0.2% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 48.6% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 28.8% | 18.2% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | 32.2% | 14.2% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
The Bear View & The Current Investment Debate
The current investment debate on NEMis centered around: Can record gold prices and resulting free cash flow mask deteriorating operational metrics like declining production and rising costs, or will these fundamentals ultimately drive the stock lower?
The prevailing sentiment is bearish. Record cash flow is being overshadowed by a clear trend of operational decay. Production is decelerating and costs are rising. The market is rightly concerned this is a commodity-price story, not an execution one.
| Bull View | Bear View |
|---|---|
| Record free cash flow, fueled by high gold prices, will fund significant shareholder returns (buybacks, dividends) and debt reduction, making operational concerns secondary. | Decelerating production volumes and rising All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) indicate a fragile, price-dependent operation. The stock is vulnerable to a commodity price correction or further operational slips. |
You can evaluate more on which view to bet on by visiting NEM Investment Highlights & Full Analysis
NEM Is Just One of Several Such Stocks
Not ready to act on NEM? Consider these alternatives:
We chose these stocks using the following criteria:
- Greater than $2 Bil in market cap
- Meaningfully below 1Y high
- Current P/S < last few year average
- Strong operating margin
- P/E ratio below S&P 500 median
A portfolio of stocks with the criteria above would have performed has follows since 12/31/2016:
- Average 6-month and 12-month forward returns of 12.7% and 25.8% respectively
- Win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of > 70% for both 6-month and 12-month periods
- Strategy consistent across market cycles
Portfolios Win When Stock Picks Fall Short
Individual stocks can soar or tank but one thing matters: staying invested. The right portfolio can help you stay invested, capture upside and mitigate the downside associated with any individual stock.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.