Why Has Newmont Stock Outperformed The Market?

+43.70%
Upside
44.89
Market
64.51
Trefis
NEM: Newmont Mining logo
NEM
Newmont Mining

Newmont stock (NYSE: NEM) has increased 4.4% in the last one week, outperforming the S&P 500 which declined more than 2% during this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, NEM stock has increased (6% and 6.5%, respectively) and outperformed the broader market on both occasions. The recent rise in NEM stock was the effect of a rise in global gold prices. With a rise in inflation and increase in Russia-Ukraine tensions, global stock markets have dropped. This has made the yellow metal more lucrative as a hedge. Gold futures traded at $1,908 on February 21. With NEM being one of the largest producers of gold, if gold prices are heading further north, NEM’s higher production will help in improved top and bottom line in the coming quarters.

Now, is NEM stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 48% chance of a rise in NEM stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NEM Stock Chance of Rise. We value NEM stock at a forward P/EBITDA multiple of 8.5x, more of which can be seen in our analysis on Newmont EBITDA.

Relevant Articles
  1. Why Newmont Stock Looks Attractive
  2. What’s Next For Newmont Stock After A Tough Q2 Report
  3. Will Newmont Stock Bounce Back?
  4. Why Did Newmont Corporation Stock Lose 20% In Value?
  5. Are Tides Turning For Newmont Corporation Stock?
  6. Here’s How The Recent Slide In Gold Prices Impacted Newmont Stock

Twenty-One Day: NEM 6.5%, vs. S&P500 -1.9%; Outperformed market

(25% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • NEM stock increased 6.5% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.9%
  • A change of 6.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 25% likelihood event, which has occurred 634 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 634 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 305 occasions
  • This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NEM 6%, vs. S&P500 -4%; Outperformed market

(17% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • NEM stock increased 6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 4%
  • A change of 6% or more over ten trading days is a 17% likelihood event, which has occurred 418 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 418 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 212 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NEM 6.5%, vs. S&P500 -2.2%; Outperformed market

(17% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next five days)

  • NEM stock increased 6.5% over a five-day trading period ending 02/22/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 2.2%
  • A change of 6.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 17% likelihood event, which has occurred 439 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 439 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 212 occasions
  • This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Feb 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 NEM Return 10% 8% 97%
 S&P 500 Return -5% -10% 92%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -3% -12% 246%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/23/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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