What To Expect From Nasdaq Stock Post Its Stock Split?

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NDAQ
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Nasdaq stock (NASDAQ: NDAQ) has lost 3.2% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 3.6%). Further, the same pattern was observed over the last ten days (1.6% vs 0.09%) and one month (7.7% vs 4.6%). 

The company outperformed the consensus estimates in the second quarter, with net revenues increasing by 6% y-o-y to $893 million. It was primarily driven by a 10% growth in the solutions segment (non-trading revenues) and a 1% increase in the trading revenues. Further, the firm recently released its monthly volumes for July. While the volume of U.S. equity derivatives decreased 11% y-o-y, the U.S. cash equities category witnessed a 4% rise. We expect the third quarter trading-driven revenues to follow the same trend as the last quarter. In addition to this, the company’s board has approved a three-for-one stock split of the company’s common shares, to be executed on August 29, 2022. This will make NDAQ’s stock more affordable to potential shareholders.

Now, is NDAQ stock set to lose further, or could we expect some improvement? We believe that there is a 67% chance of a rise in NASDAQ stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Nasdaq Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: NDAQ 7.7%, vs. S&P500 4.6%; Outperformed market

(13% likelihood event; 67% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Nasdaq stock gained 7.7% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 4.6%
  • A change of 7.7% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 13% likelihood event, which has occurred 329 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 329 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 222 occasions
  • This points to a 67% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NDAQ 1.6%, vs. S&P500 0.09%; Outperformed market

(40% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Nasdaq stock increased 1.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 0.09%
  • A change of 1.6% or more over ten trading days is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 1013 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1013 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 610 occasions
  • This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NDAQ -3.2%, vs. S&P500 -3.6%; Outperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Nasdaq stock dropped by 3.2% over a five-day trading period ending 08/22/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 3.6%
  • A change of -3.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 236 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 236 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 135 occasions
  • This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Aug 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 NDAQ Return 3% -12% 177%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -13% 85%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -1% -14% 236%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/23/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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