How Nebius Stock Hits $100 Billion

Just about a year ago, AI-focused cloud player Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) was dismissed by many as a Russian tech castoff. Born out of  a split from Yandex, Russia’s internet giant, it seemed destined to stay on the margins of global tech. Instead, it has staged one of the sector’s most remarkable comebacks. Since starting trading last October at $20 per share, Nebius has surged to $89, lifting its market cap above $21 billion – a 350% gain in just about twelve months. Unlike many “story stocks,” this rally is grounded in fundamentals: revenues are on track to surge from $117 million in 2024 to a projected $568 million in 2025 and $1.5 billion in 2026.

Adding to the momentum, Nebius just signed a landmark $17.4 billion deal with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to supply GPU infrastructure capacity over the next five years – a validation of its capabilities. Now some of the biggest names in tech – Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) – have built multi-trillion dollar valuations on the back of their cloud infrastructure. With AI now the defining growth driver in tech, we present a case on how Nebius can leverage its AI-only focus to carve a path toward a $100 billion-plus valuation in the coming years.

Image by Pete Linforth from Pixabay

The AI Compute Era

Nebius isn’t a general-purpose cloud like AWS or Azure. It belongs to a new breed of “Neoclouds” – infrastructure platforms built exclusively for AI workloads, with compute, storage, networking, and management tools all optimized for training and running large-scale AI models. While hyperscalers try to be everything to everyone, Nebius focuses on delivering exactly what AI labs and enterprises need most: high-performance, dedicated GPU infrastructure. The Microsoft deal underscores this positioning.

The software giant has repeatedly faced AI compute shortages, compounded by its commitments to supply OpenAI. To close the gap, Microsoft will source dedicated capacity from a new Nebius data center in Vineland, New Jersey, starting later this year. From ChatGPT transforming how we work and conduct research, to AlphaFold accelerating drug discovery, and generative tools reshaping creative workflows, AI is powering nearly every industry – and Nebius could be powering the critical infrastructure that makes it all possible.

Before we dive into Nebius stock’s specific numbers, let’s acknowledge an important reality. Individual stock investing, especially in high-growth companies like Nebius, comes with inherent volatility. While the upside potential is substantial, the ride can be bumpy. That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. This diversified approach can provide exposure to high-quality growth companies while managing single-stock risk. Now, with that context in mind, let’s examine what makes Natera’s individual story so compelling.

How Nebius Is Different

So sure, there is a lot of competition in this space, but Nebius distinguishes itself in a couple of ways despite competition. First, the company maintains a close partnership with AI chip leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), which produces the most advanced GPUs and effectively sets industry standards. Nvidia acts as both a key partner and investor, having participated in a $700 million funding round last year and owning over 1 million Nebius shares. This relationship may give Nebius preferential access to Nvidia’s most coveted GPUs, such as the Blackwell super chips,  giving it a critical edge in a market where supply remains far below demand.

Another differentiator is Nebius’s vertically integrated model. The company designs its own servers internally, bypassing OEMs and working directly with manufacturers to reduce costs, optimize performance, and swiftly incorporate the latest GPUs. This control accelerates deployment cycles and improves efficiency — with infrastructure costs reportedly as low as $0.025 per GPU-hour.  The company also offers transparent billing and no lock-ins which makes it particularly appealing to AI-first startups, where much of the innovation is happening. This could help it better lock in customers early.

The $100 Billion Math

Let’s consider the scale of the opportunity. Amazon Web Services (AWS) leads with run-rate revenue above $120 billion, while Microsoft’s Azure topped $75 billion in the last fiscal year. AI workloads are even more compute- and memory-intensive, suggesting the AI cloud market could ultimately surpass today’s general-purpose cloud in scale. The AI cloud segment is expanding much faster than general-purpose cloud, as generative and automation use cases proliferate. And unlike hyperscalers, AI-focused clouds deploy specialized GPU clusters, liquid cooling, and tailored orchestration software allowing for more enabling premium pricing, deeper lock-in, and faster growth.

The Microsoft deal validates Nebius’s technology and could open doors to additional hyperscaler or enterprise partnerships. The numbers support the bull case: consensus estimates call for revenue to grow from $568 million in 2025 to about $1.5 billion in 2026. Extending the curve, if Nebius compounds at 50% annually from 2026 through 2030, revenue would reach about $7.6 billion. Importantly, the Microsoft contract alone could contribute more than $3.5 billion annually by 2028, making the $7.6 billion figure potentially conservative.

For perspective, Nebius currently trades at roughly 40× estimated 2025 revenue. Even if this multiple compresses to 15× sales – not unusual for high-growth cloud infrastructure – that implies a $114 billion market cap. For perspective, Microsoft, with a $3.5 trillion plus valuation trades at close to 12x sales, so this multiple should be reasonable for a earlier growth phase company like Nebius. With about 250 million shares outstanding, that equates to a stock price of roughly $459 per share by 2030. That’s more than a 5x upside from today’s $89 stock price.

Risks remain

Nebius’s bull case rests on flawless execution of its big Microsoft contract, continued preferential access to Nvidia’s most advanced GPUs, and financing rapid expansion without crushing its margins. Microsoft will also represent an outsized share of future revenue, leaving Nebius heavily dependent on one customer. Moreover, with the stock already trading at nearly 40× FY25 revenue – well above peers – a slowdown could hit the valuation hard. It’s also still worth addressing Nebius’s backstory, and noting Nebius’s origins. The company was an offshoot of Yandex, Russia’s tech giant, and founder Arkady Volozh faced EU sanctions after the Ukraine invasion, which had made investors cautious. Since then, Nebius has fully cut ties with Yandex’s Russian operations and relocated to Amsterdam with an international engineering team. The EU lifted its sanctions last year, removing most of the geopolitical overhang, though the company’s Russian roots remain a minor residual risk.

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