Micron Stock To $300?

Micron Technology stock (NASDAQ:MU) has surged roughly 80% from around $87 at the start of 2025 to nearly $157, hitting all-time highs along the way. So, what’s fueling this surge for Micron? It’s all about that AI infrastructure demand, which is driving sales of high-bandwidth memory products, also known as HBM. Now even after the big rally, Micron stock trades at just about 20× estimated 2025 earnings. Projected growth is strong: revenues are on track to rise 48% this fiscal, per consensus estimates, while growth is pegged at roughly 31% for FY’26. With this strong growth and reasonable valuation, does Micron stock have the potential to roughly double to levels of about $300? We provide an outline for this scenario below.

Image by Cliff Smith from Pixabay

Surging HBM Demand

Demand is being driven by the rapid adoption of generative AI, which requires high-performance memory to operate at scale. While DRAM delivers capacity, HBM provides the bandwidth and low latency needed for large language models. Micron is a key supplier for Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) Blackwell GB200 platform, as well as AMD’s Instinct MI350 series GPUs. Memory content per AI system is also rising: for instance, Nvidia’s latest Blackwell systems carry 33% more memory per node compared to previous-generation chips.

Moreover, as AI models expand from text-only to multimodal formats, including video and speech, memory intensity is increasing. With AI expected to be widely adopted across the economy, Micron has the potential for a long growth trajectory. To get a sense of scale of the investments, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Meta (NASDAQ:META) indicated that they could spend a cumulative $364 billion in capex for their respective current fiscal years.

But supply won’t keep up so easily. HBM is more complex to manufacture than traditional DRAM, and supply remains limited. Producing HBM is wafer-intensive – it takes about three times as many wafers as standard DRAM to produce the same number of bits due to its lower bit density and complex 3D stacking. This creates a natural bottleneck. While Micron has been scaling HBM production capacity, output for 2025 is already sold out, with strong demand expected in 2026. Micron aims to expand its HBM market share significantly, targeting about 20 to 25% of the HBM segment by late 2025. Beyond HBM, Micron is the only volume producer of low-power DRAM for data centers, an advantage as AI workloads increasingly prioritize efficiency.

How Micron Stock Can 2x

Looking ahead, even after this rally, Micron doesn’t look overvalued. Its revenues grew 58%, from $21 billion in 2023 to $34 billion in 2024, as the company recovered from a down cycle. Consensus projects revenues rising from about $25.1 billion in FY’24 to $37.1 billion in FY’25, and by about 31% to $48.7 billion in FY’26. HBM has been a key driver of this growth with HBM revenue reaching a $6 billion annualized run rate and a projected $10 billion run rate by 2026. Higher HBM production does put pressure on conventional DRAM supply and thereby contributes to increasing DRAM prices and this could help to boost revenue of products outside of HBM, as well.

If we model a slightly more conservative 25% annual growth between FY’26 and FY’28, Micron could generate roughly $77 billion in revenue by FY’28. Micron’s net margins, stood at about 20% over the first nine months of this year. Its possible that the number could expand further due to a higher mix of higher-margin HBM chips as well as better economies of scale. Assuming net margins reach about 22% in FY’28, that translates into net income of roughly $17 billion. With a forward P/E of roughly 20x, this would imply a market cap of about $340 billion, suggesting a stock price that could nearly double from current levels.

Competition And Risks

That said, competition remains. SK Hynix still leads the HBM market with roughly 50% share and a production head start, particularly on HBM4. Micron is ramping HBM3E and sampling HBM4, but it is still playing catch-up. HBM4 is expected to power Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin architecture for AI accelerators. The memory market has also historically been highly cyclical, and Micron is no exception.

DRAM and NAND remain sensitive to supply-demand swings and pricing volatility. At this juncture, it looks like HBM provides a partially secular growth driver, with AI infrastructure build-outs, high margins, and strong order visibility offering some insulation. Still, HBM currently accounts for under 20% of total revenue, so the company isn’t completely immune to traditional cycles. AI demand could also normalize after years of heavy investments if shareholders begin demanding better returns and more efficient capital spending.

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