MACOM Technology Solutions Stock To $145?
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) stock has fallen by 19.7% in less than a month, from $258.54 on 2nd Mar. 2026 to $207.51 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in the context of stock’s Very High valuation, suggests the possibility of further downside. A price of $145 is not out of the question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell MACOM Technology Solutions Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on MTSI stock to help you make the decision. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 32%, with the median peak return reaching 56%. We define a sharp dip as a stock going down 20% or more in less than a 30-day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 4.9% |
| 3M | 15.4% |
| 6M | 24.4% |
| 12M | 31.8% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
MTSI had 18 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 56% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 289 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -17% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | MTSI Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | MTSI | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 32% | 56% | -17% | 289 | ||||
| 3032025 | -24% | -1% | 90% | 137% | -20% | 364 | ||
| 5032023 | -21% | 2% | 80% | 82% | -6% | 362 | ||
| 5112022 | -22% | -15% | 15% | 49% | -9% | 301 | ||
| 1272022 | -21% | -7% | 13% | 24% | -24% | 292 | ||
| 9112020 | -25% | 3% | 97% | 112% | -2% | 171 | ||
| 3062020 | -20% | -10% | 139% | 187% | -33% | 360 | ||
| 4252019 | -23% | 4% | 85% | 119% | -12% | 286 | ||
| 1032019 | -21% | -10% | 84% | 95% | -11% | 357 | ||
| 10052018 | -23% | 1% | 17% | 31% | -29% | 342 | ||
| 2072018 | -43% | 0% | -14% | 33% | -30% | 125 | ||
| 11152017 | -30% | 1% | -41% | 24% | -55% | 54 | ||
| 8032017 | -22% | 2% | -52% | 4% | -64% | 29 | ||
| 7222015 | -21% | 2% | 15% | 42% | -15% | 254 | ||
| 10142014 | -21% | -6% | 62% | 120% | 0% | 252 | ||
| 5082014 | -20% | 1% | 113% | 138% | -3% | 320 | ||
| 4222013 | -20% | 1% | 43% | 64% | 0% | 345 | ||
| 8032012 | -24% | 5% | 20% | 27% | -19% | 181 | ||
| 5092012 | -22% | -4% | -17% | 15% | -34% | 61 | ||
MACOM Technology Solutions Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 29.1% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 15.1% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 20.7% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 33.6 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 131.4 |
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