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MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $183.95 | Market Cap: $13.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors

MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $183.95
Market Cap: $13.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and Telecom Infrastructure.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and Telecom Infrastructure.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MTSI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, surpassing analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company announced its Q4 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, with an EPS of $0.94, beating the consensus estimate of $0.93. Revenue reached $261.17 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $260.16 million, representing a 3.6% year-over-year growth. Additionally, MACOM provided optimistic guidance for Q1 2026, setting EPS expectations at $0.98–1.02.

2. Several prominent financial analysts upgraded MTSI's stock ratings and significantly increased their price targets during this period. Zacks Research, for instance, raised its rating from "strong sell" to "hold" on August 20, 2025. Following the strong earnings report, TD Cowen boosted its price target from $150.00 to $190.00 and reiterated a "buy" rating on November 7, 2025. Needham & Company LLC also increased its price objective from $150.00 to $175.00 with a "buy" rating on November 6, 2025. Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock from "hold" to "buy" on October 11, 2025. These upgrades contributed to an average analyst rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $169.44.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MTSI Return107%42%-20%48%40%37%569%
Peers Return30%71%-24%27%-13%12%108%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MTSI Win Rate67%67%33%75%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate57%58%37%53%40%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MTSI Max Drawdown-39%-10%-44%-15%-14%-33% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-5%-42%-15%-30%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RMBS, CRUS, SLAB, SYNA, POWI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMTSIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven414 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven68 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-80.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven420.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven645 days120 days

Compare to RMBS, CRUS, SLAB, SYNA, POWI


In The Past

MACOM Technology Solutions's stock fell -44.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -44.9% loss requires a 81.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)

Better Bets than MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MTSI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MACOM Technology Solutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MTSIRMBSCRUSSLABSYNAPOWIMedian
NameMACOM Te.Rambus Cirrus L.Silicon .SynapticsPower In. 
Mkt Price183.4698.03122.15137.6875.9236.19110.09
Mkt Cap13.710.66.34.52.92.05.4
Rev LTM9076781,9487431,109446825
Op Inc LTM118247449-96-70561
FCF LTM1722925347414580158
FCF 3Y Avg150220403-110665128
CFO LTM22831955797184100206
CFO 3Y Avg1852464351918785186

Growth & Margins

MTSIRMBSCRUSSLABSYNAPOWIMedian
NameMACOM Te.Rambus Cirrus L.Silicon .SynapticsPower In. 
Rev Chg LTM33.5%31.0%2.2%47.1%13.2%10.5%22.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg12.5%17.3%-0.1%-0.7%-12.7%-12.3%-0.4%
Rev Chg Q32.3%22.7%3.5%23.8%13.5%2.7%18.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.3%5.1%1.0%5.6%3.2%0.7%4.2%
Op Mgn LTM13.0%36.5%23.0%-12.9%-6.3%1.2%7.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.7%27.8%20.3%-15.6%-3.8%5.4%9.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.2%0.2%0.4%3.2%-0.4%-3.5%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM25.2%47.0%28.6%13.1%16.6%22.5%23.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.5%44.2%22.8%2.8%16.9%19.4%21.1%
FCF/Rev LTM18.9%43.1%27.4%9.9%13.0%17.9%18.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.0%39.3%21.1%0.1%9.6%14.8%17.4%

Valuation

MTSIRMBSCRUSSLABSYNAPOWIMedian
NameMACOM Te.Rambus Cirrus L.Silicon .SynapticsPower In. 
Mkt Cap13.710.66.34.52.92.05.4
P/S11.816.53.35.82.45.05.4
P/EBIT-224.941.813.3-52.3-40.2420.2-13.5
P/E-152.549.016.9-50.0-58.5125.0-16.6
P/CFO46.835.111.544.214.422.428.8
Total Yield-0.7%2.0%5.9%-2.0%-1.7%2.9%0.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.1%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.1%3.3%6.6%-0.1%3.5%2.2%2.7%
D/E0.00.00.00.00.30.00.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.10.1-0.1-0.1

Returns

MTSIRMBSCRUSSLABSYNAPOWIMedian
NameMACOM Te.Rambus Cirrus L.Silicon .SynapticsPower In. 
1M Rtn22.2%-7.3%-6.9%7.6%6.9%-12.5%-0.0%
3M Rtn40.9%33.1%7.9%5.1%11.9%-17.1%9.9%
6M Rtn44.0%71.5%20.9%9.9%21.5%-32.9%21.2%
12M Rtn30.1%67.2%15.7%22.7%-5.8%-44.2%19.2%
3Y Rtn166.8%155.6%64.9%-2.8%-26.1%-52.4%31.0%
1M Excs Rtn22.2%-7.3%-6.9%7.6%6.9%-12.5%0.0%
3M Excs Rtn33.8%24.7%0.6%-3.3%3.8%-23.9%2.2%
6M Excs Rtn29.3%56.8%6.2%-4.9%6.8%-47.7%6.5%
12M Excs Rtn24.6%56.0%3.4%10.9%-18.9%-57.3%7.1%
3Y Excs Rtn104.3%93.7%-5.1%-72.8%-95.9%-123.3%-38.9%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,635,137
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-22.6%
Average Daily Volume1,234,760
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.13
Basic Shares Quantity74,427,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 7/4/2025
3312025508202510-Q 4/4/2025
12312024206202510-Q 1/3/2025
93020241112202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/28/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/29/2024
12312023201202410-Q 12/29/2023
93020231113202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022202202310-Q 12/30/2022
93020221114202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 7/1/2022
3312022428202210-Q 4/1/2022
12312021127202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-K 9/30/2021