MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $183.95 | Market Cap: $13.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $183.95Market Cap: $13.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MTSI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, surpassing analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company announced its Q4 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, with an EPS of $0.94, beating the consensus estimate of $0.93. Revenue reached $261.17 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $260.16 million, representing a 3.6% year-over-year growth. Additionally, MACOM provided optimistic guidance for Q1 2026, setting EPS expectations at $0.98–1.02.
2. Several prominent financial analysts upgraded MTSI's stock ratings and significantly increased their price targets during this period. Zacks Research, for instance, raised its rating from "strong sell" to "hold" on August 20, 2025. Following the strong earnings report, TD Cowen boosted its price target from $150.00 to $190.00 and reiterated a "buy" rating on November 7, 2025. Needham & Company LLC also increased its price objective from $150.00 to $175.00 with a "buy" rating on November 6, 2025. Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock from "hold" to "buy" on October 11, 2025. These upgrades contributed to an average analyst rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $169.44.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTSI Return | 107% | 42% | -20% | 48% | 40% | 37% | 569% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 71% | -24% | 27% | -13% | 12% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTSI Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 37% | 53% | 40% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTSI Max Drawdown | -39% | -10% | -44% | -15% | -14% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -5% | -42% | -15% | -30% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RMBS, CRUS, SLAB, SYNA, POWI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTSI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 414 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -80.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 420.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 645 days | 120 days |
Compare to RMBS, CRUS, SLAB, SYNA, POWI
In The Past
MACOM Technology Solutions's stock fell -44.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -44.9% loss requires a 81.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MTSI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MACOM Technology Solutions
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| Rev LTM | 825 |
| Op Inc LTM | 61 |
| FCF LTM | 158 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 128 |
| CFO LTM | 206 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 186 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | -13.5 |
| P/E | -16.6 |
| P/CFO | 28.8 |
| Total Yield | 0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 7/4/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 4/4/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 1/3/2025 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/28/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/29/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-Q 12/29/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/30/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 7/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 4/1/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1272022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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