Tearsheet

MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $168.36 | Market Cap: $12.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors

MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $168.36
Market Cap: $12.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
Key risks
MTSI key risks include [1] a premium valuation that demands flawless execution on growth initiatives, Show more.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and Telecom Infrastructure.
 
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and Telecom Infrastructure.
3 Key risks
MTSI key risks include [1] a premium valuation that demands flawless execution on growth initiatives, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MTSI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the 31.3% stock movement of MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: **1. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat and Optimistic Guidance.**

MACOM Technology Solutions reported its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations with an adjusted EPS of $0.94 against a consensus of $0.93 and revenues of $261.2 million, surpassing the anticipated $260.16 million. The company also provided an optimistic outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, projecting revenues between $265 million and $273 million, along with strong adjusted gross margin and earnings per share. This robust performance and positive forecast likely fueled investor confidence. **2. Numerous Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets.**

Throughout the specified period, MACOM Technology Solutions received several positive revisions to its analyst ratings and price targets. For instance, on November 7, 2025, Benchmark maintained a "Buy" rating and raised its price target to $190 from $160, while Barclays maintained an "Overweight" rating and increased its target from $150 to $200. In December, Northland analyst Tim Savageaux further boosted his price target from $200 to $225, citing improved long-term potential for optical components. These endorsements from the analytical community likely contributed to the stock's upward momentum. **3. Robust Demand in the Data Center Market.**

A significant driver for MACOM's stock performance was the strong demand observed in the data center market. Management highlighted sustained momentum in 800G applications and the ongoing ramp towards 1.6T applications, indicating a healthy and growing market for the company's semiconductor solutions. This strong underlying demand for high-speed optical components positioned MACOM favorably within the technology sector. **4. Strategic Positioning in Key Growth Segments, Including AI and Defense.**

MACOM is strategically benefiting from its involvement in critical growth areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), 5G, and defense. The company's advanced RF and optical chips are in high demand for data center upgrades and military applications. MACOM's continuous innovation in cutting-edge semiconductor materials like photonics, gallium arsenide, and silicon carbide technologies for global communication standards further strengthens its market position. **5. Continued Stock Appreciation Despite Significant Insider Selling.**

Despite substantial insider selling activity during the period, the stock maintained its strong upward trajectory. For example, major shareholder Susan Ocampo executed multiple large sales, including a transaction on October 15, 2025, totaling over $20 million. Other insider sales in September 2025 also exceeded the $5 million threshold on multiple occasions. The fact that the stock continued to climb significantly even with these large-scale sales suggests that the positive market sentiment, strong earnings, and strategic growth drivers were powerful enough to overcome potential downward pressure from insider transactions.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MTSI Return107%42%-20%48%40%35%560%
Peers Return33%17%-30%36%25%72%215%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MTSI Win Rate67%67%33%75%67%58% 
Peers Win Rate62%57%35%63%55%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MTSI Max Drawdown-39%-10%-44%-15%-14%-33% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-10%-41%-9%-21%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADI, SWKS, QRVO, AVGO, LITE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMTSIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven414 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven68 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-80.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven420.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven645 days120 days

Compare to RMBS, CRUS, SLAB, SYNA, POWI


In The Past

MACOM Technology Solutions's stock fell -44.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -44.9% loss requires a 81.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)

Better Bets than MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MTSI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MACOM Technology Solutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MTSIADISWKSQRVOAVGOLITEMedian
NameMACOM Te.Analog D.Skyworks.Qorvo Broadcom Lumentum  
Mkt Price168.31271.0465.0085.92326.02320.25219.68
Mkt Cap9.3120.69.78.01,536.922.516.1
Rev LTM96711,0204,0873,66359,9261,8423,875
Op Inc LTM1303,00252436523,366-104445
FCF LTM1534,2791,07653524,930-88805
FCF 3Y Avg1443,6521,44653720,319-61992
CFO LTM2354,8121,30168025,438145991
CFO 3Y Avg1884,4941,66167520,8211231,168

Growth & Margins

MTSIADISWKSQRVOAVGOLITEMedian
NameMACOM Te.Analog D.Skyworks.Qorvo Broadcom Lumentum  
Rev Chg LTM32.6%16.9%-2.2%-7.2%28.0%33.6%22.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.7%-1.4%-9.2%-3.7%24.0%3.4%1.0%
Rev Chg Q30.1%25.9%7.3%1.1%22.0%58.4%24.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.7%6.1%1.9%0.3%5.0%12.0%5.6%
Op Mgn LTM13.4%27.2%12.8%10.0%39.0%-5.7%13.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.4%27.2%18.6%5.1%38.4%-14.5%16.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%1.9%-2.2%0.9%1.5%6.0%1.2%
CFO/Rev LTM24.3%43.7%31.8%18.6%42.4%7.9%28.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.1%41.2%38.1%18.5%44.6%7.5%31.1%
FCF/Rev LTM15.8%38.8%26.3%14.6%41.6%-4.8%21.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg18.9%33.6%33.2%14.6%43.5%-3.8%26.0%

Valuation

MTSIADISWKSQRVOAVGOLITEMedian
NameMACOM Te.Analog D.Skyworks.Qorvo Broadcom Lumentum  
Mkt Cap9.3120.69.78.01,536.922.516.1
P/S9.610.92.82.321.76.27.9
P/EBIT--20.725.956.5-175.223.3
P/E-171.053.224.038.868.6101.746.0
P/CFO39.425.18.812.451.179.132.2
Total Yield-0.6%3.5%7.9%2.6%1.5%1.0%2.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.6%3.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--10.0%5.8%3.1%-1.0%4.5%
D/E--0.10.20.00.30.1
Net D/E---0.00.10.00.20.0

Returns

MTSIADISWKSQRVOAVGOLITEMedian
NameMACOM Te.Analog D.Skyworks.Qorvo Broadcom Lumentum  
1M Rtn5.3%18.3%2.9%5.3%-4.9%32.3%5.3%
3M Rtn27.6%10.4%-11.7%-2.0%-5.8%96.1%4.2%
6M Rtn25.3%18.9%-7.4%7.0%30.3%262.0%22.1%
12M Rtn21.8%28.9%-25.4%21.1%37.0%260.2%25.3%
3Y Rtn156.8%71.2%-23.2%-9.2%517.3%514.8%114.0%
1M Excs Rtn4.6%17.6%2.2%4.5%-5.6%31.6%4.5%
3M Excs Rtn28.4%7.9%-16.0%-5.9%-6.9%85.4%1.0%
6M Excs Rtn12.9%6.5%-19.7%-5.4%17.9%249.6%9.7%
12M Excs Rtn10.0%16.1%-36.6%12.4%35.4%233.6%14.3%
3Y Excs Rtn75.7%-2.7%-94.5%-81.8%448.1%419.7%36.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductors and modules730648675607530
Total730648675607530


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductors and modules74    
Total74    


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductors and modules77    
Total77    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,521,956
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-4.3%
Average Daily Volume930,159
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.71
Basic Shares Quantity74,460,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/202511.5%14.2%24.0%
8/7/2025-8.1%-9.4%-6.6%
5/8/20255.5%9.0%10.3%
2/6/2025-4.6%-10.2%-24.3%
11/7/202414.1%5.6%14.1%
8/1/2024-1.3%-4.9%8.3%
5/2/2024-0.1%2.3%2.0%
2/1/2024-2.5%-6.3%7.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151519
# Negative10106
Median Positive6.1%9.8%9.9%
Median Negative-3.4%-4.4%-5.4%
Max Positive19.6%17.9%25.7%
Max Negative-8.1%-12.9%-24.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251114202510-K 10/3/2025
6302025807202510-Q 7/4/2025
3312025508202510-Q 4/4/2025
12312024206202510-Q 1/3/2025
93020241112202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/28/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/29/2024
12312023201202410-Q 12/29/2023
93020231113202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022202202310-Q 12/30/2022
93020221114202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 7/1/2022
3312022428202210-Q 4/1/2022
12312021127202210-Q 12/31/2021