MSTR Stock’s Real Risk: Bitcoin Below $75,446

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Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money.

Betting markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of taking the House on Tuesday, and about seven in ten of a sweep. Strategy, the company formerly called MicroStrategy, owns about 848,000 Bitcoin. Its stock is a leveraged bet on one asset. So the election question is really a Bitcoin question.

Strategy (MSTR)	The number
Market value	$55B
Last 12 months	−49%
Bitcoin owned	about 848,500 coins
Average price paid per coin	$75,446
Bitcoin price, Oct 30	about $77,200

Strategy’s Bitcoin is worth about $65.5 billion. The stock market values the whole company at $55 billion.

Multiply the coins by the price and Strategy holds about $65.5 billion of Bitcoin, against about $64 billion it paid. Its market value is about 84% of its Bitcoin. Investors who once paid a premium for Strategy’s Bitcoin now pay less than the coins are worth.

See more lines: the fine print on that discount

The 84% is market value ($55.1B: 422.0M shares at Sep 30 × $130.51) ÷ Bitcoin holdings (848,517 × $77,191 ≈ $65.5B, estimate). It ignores Strategy’s debt and preferred stock, which rank ahead of common shareholders. Counting those, the company’s “enterprise” value is closer to its Bitcoin value; Strategy’s own enterprise multiple (mNAV) first dipped below 1 in late June, with Bitcoin near $60,000 (reported). Holdings are as of the Oct 26 filing (no coins bought Oct 19–25, reported); later purchases would change the math slightly.

Does Strategy Need Anything From Congress?

Not much, and what it might have wanted is already out of reach. The big crypto trading bill, the CLARITY Act, failed a key Senate vote 49 to 50 in September, with Republicans in charge. A bill to have the government buy a million Bitcoin never got a vote. A Democratic Congress makes both less likely. But Strategy’s business plan never depended on them.

The rules that do matter to Strategy are tax and accounting rules, and they’re set by the Treasury and accounting boards, not Congress. Treasury guidance in 2025 kept unrealized crypto gains out of the 15% corporate minimum tax. A Democratic House can’t reverse that past a veto.

Then What Does Move The Stock?

Bitcoin, about twice as hard. Over the past 12 months Strategy fell 49% while Bitcoin fell about 30%. Over the past three months, with Bitcoin off its June low near $60,000, Strategy rose 34%. Its shares swing about 80% a year, annualized, two and a half times as much as Microsoft’s 32%.

The engine that used to make it rise faster than Bitcoin has stalled. Strategy sold new shares at a premium to buy more coins, so each share owned more Bitcoin over time. With the premium gone, selling shares dilutes holders instead. One report puts its Bitcoin per share down about 3.7% this year. Its last reported purchase, in mid-October, was just 267 coins. And its board has approved selling up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin if needed to top up its cash.

That’s the trouble with owning a leveraged bet on one asset: you can be right about the election and still lose half your money in a year. For families with $1 million or more, the mix matters more than the pick. A Trefis partner firm can help you check yours.

What If Bitcoin Falls Below $75,446?

Then Strategy’s Bitcoin is worth less than it paid, on paper. Nothing has to be sold; there’s no margin call on the coins themselves. But headlines would say “underwater,” and the pressure to sell Bitcoin to pay preferred dividends would rise. A 20% drop in Bitcoin, to about $61,800, would put the holdings about $12 billion below cost. Bitcoin traded near $60,000 as recently as June.

How Did It End Last Time?

In 2022, Strategy fell about 90% from its 2021 peak as Bitcoin fell about 75%. Then in 2023 it more than quadrupled as Bitcoin recovered. It never sold its core holdings, and it survived. The lesson cuts both ways: Strategy amplifies whatever Bitcoin does next, and the election isn’t what decides that.

Watch Bitcoin’s $75,446 line, not the House count. Strategy needs nothing from this Congress, and a Democratic one can’t take away what it has. Its fate rides on Bitcoin, about twice over, and Bitcoin sits just about 3% above what Strategy paid.

For the whole sector, see What’s Happening With Crypto Stocks?.

What Would A 50% Drop Cost You?

Elections change the odds, not your plan. If you have $1 million or more invested, see what Tuesday means for your portfolio in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.

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