Motorola Solutions Inc. Stock Looks Set To Continue Its Rally

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Trefis
MSI: Motorola Solutions logo
MSI
Motorola Solutions

Motorola Solutions Inc. stock (NYSE: MSI) is up almost 8% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just 1% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five days, too, the stock has returned 1%, outperforming the broader markets. Motorola’s recent Q1 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $1.77 billion in Q1 ’21 to $1.89 billion in Q1 ’22. However, COGS and other operating expenses rose at a faster rate, and operating income dropped from $298 million to $239 million over this period. Despite this, a $49 million tax benefit helped net income rise to $267 million in Q1 ’22, and EPS rose from $1.44 to $1.59 over this period.

Now, is MSI stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 58% chance of a rise in MSI stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on MSI Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Motorola Solutions (MSI) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about MSI revenue and comparison to peers, see Motorola Solutions (MSI) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: MSI 7.5%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Outperformed market

(15% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • MSI stock gained 7.5% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.1%
  • A change of 7.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 15% likelihood event, which has occurred 371 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 371 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 215 occasions
  • This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MSI 4.3%, vs. S&P500 4.7%; Underperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • MSI stock gained 4.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.7%
  • A change of 4.3% or more over ten trading days is an 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 453 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 453 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 257 occasions
  • This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MSI 1%, vs. S&P500 0.7%; Outperformed market

(40% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next five days)

  • MSI stock rose 1% over a five-day trading period ending 6/7/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up a marginal 0.7% over this period.
  • A change of 1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 1006 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1006 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 578 occasions
  • This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jun 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 MSI Return 1% -18% 168%
 S&P 500 Return 1% -13% 86%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 3% -17% 227%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/7/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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