Motorola Solutions Stock Looks Set To Bounce On The Back Of Steady Earnings Growth

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Downside
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Market
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Trefis
MSI: Motorola Solutions logo
MSI
Motorola Solutions

Motorola Solutions Inc. stock (NYSE: MSI) is down 16% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down almost 7% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -8.3% and -4.9%, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. MSI reported steady growth in its FY ’21 earnings reported late last week, with revenue rising from $7.41 billion in FY ’20 to $8.17 billion in FY ’21, driven primarily by rising product sales. Further, with COGS and operating expenses rising at a slower rate, operating margins jumped from 18.7% to 20.4% over this period. This led to EPS rising from $5.58 in FY ’20 to $7.36 in FY ’21. Despite this, the stock’s recent downturn has come largely due to a slump in growth stocks, led by a sell-off in the broader markets.

Now, is MSI stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a strong 89% chance of a rise in MSI stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on MSI Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about MSI’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Motorola Solutions (MSI) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about MSI revenues and comparison to peers, see Motorola Solutions (MSI) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: MSI -16%, vs. S&P500 -6.5%; Underperformed market

(<1% likelihood event; 89% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • MSI stock dropped 16% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 6.5%
  • A change of -16% or more over twenty-one trading days is a <1% likelihood event, which has occurred 18 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 18 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 16 occasions
  • This points to an 89% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MSI -4.9%, vs. S&P500 -0.4%; Underperformed market

(7% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • MSI stock dropped 4.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.4%
  • A change of -4.9% or more over ten trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 182 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
  • Of these 182 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 102 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MSI -8.3%, vs. S&P500 -1.9%; Underperformed market

(1% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

  • MSI stock shed 8.3% over a five-day trading period ending 2/11/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.9%
  • A change of -8.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 31 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
  • Of these 31 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 16 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Feb 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 MSI Return -7% -21% 161%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -7% 97%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 1% -9% 259%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/12/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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