8-Day Sell-Off Sends Microsoft Stock Down -8.3%
Microsoft (MSFT) stock hit day 8 of a continuous streak of days with losses, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to a -8.3% return. The company has lost about $332 Bil in value over the last 8 days, with its current market capitalization at about $3.7 Tril. The stock remains 18.5% above its value at the end of 2024. This compares with year-to-date returns of 14.4% for the S&P 500.
Microsoft’s recent streak saw investors grappling with escalating AI infrastructure capital outlays weighing on free cash flow, despite robust Q1 results showing 40% Azure AI growth. This, coupled with broader tech market jitters over stretched AI valuations and rising interest rate concerns, prompted a cautious re-evaluation. For quick background: MSFT provides software, services, devices, and solutions, including Office, Microsoft Teams, Windows OEM licensing, and productivity tools for business and personal computing needs.
What is the point? Sustained weakness can be more than noise. It often signals shifting sentiment or deeper concerns. A multi-day losing streak may warn of further downside, or present an opportunity to buy if fundamentals are intact. Our take: There is not much to fear in MSFT stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. But given its Very High valuation, the stock appears Relatively Expensive. Deep dive with Buy or Sell MSFT.
Asset allocation is a smarter path than stock picking. The asset allocation strategies of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. And now, Trefis High Quality Portfolio is part of it.
Comparing MSFT Stock Returns With The S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for MSFT stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | MSFT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| 8D (Current Streak) | -8.3% | -2.4% |
| 1M (21D) | -4.9% | -0.1% |
| 3M (63D) | -4.6% | 5.6% |
| YTD 2025 | 18.5% | 14.4% |
| 2024 | 12.9% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 58.2% | 24.2% |
| 2022 | -28.0% | -19.4% |
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 72 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 23 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 42 | 8 |
| 4D | 22 | 6 |
| 5D | 5 | 7 |
| 6D | 1 | 1 |
| 7D or more | 2 | 1 |
| Total >=3 D | 72 | 23 |
Key Financials for Microsoft (MSFT)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $245.1 Bil | $281.7 Bil |
| Operating Income | $109.4 Bil | $128.5 Bil |
| Net Income | $88.1 Bil | $101.8 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ4 | 2026 FQ1 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $76.4 Bil | $77.7 Bil |
| Operating Income | $34.3 Bil | $38.0 Bil |
| Net Income | $27.2 Bil | $27.7 Bil |
The losing streak MSFT stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.