MRNA Stock Up 16% after 5-Day Win Streak
Moderna (MRNA) stock hit day 5 of a continuous streak of days with gains, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 16% return. The company has gained about $1.8 Bil in value over the last 5 days, with its current market capitalization at about $11 Bil. The stock remains 31.5% below its value at the end of 2024. This compares with year-to-date returns of 14.2% for the S&P 500.
MRNA develops mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare, cardiovascular, and auto-immune diseases, with 44 programs including 26 clinical trials across seven modalities. After this rally, is MRNA still a buy – or is it time to lock in gains? Deep dive with Buy or Sell MRNA.
MRNA stock has jumped meaningfully recently and we currently find it unattractive. This may feel like a caution, and there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. However, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Should you buy one stock you like or build a portfolio designed to win across cycles? Our numbers show that High Quality Portfolio has turned stock-picking uncertainty into market-beating consistency. This portfolio is incorporated in asset allocation strategy of Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager and Trefis partner – whose asset allocation framework yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%.
Comparing MRNA Stock Returns With The S&P 500
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The following table summarizes the return for MRNA stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | MRNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | 16.3% | 1.1% |
| 1M (21D) | 17.3% | 3.3% |
| 3M (63D) | -4.7% | 7.8% |
| YTD 2025 | -31.5% | 14.2% |
| 2024 | -58.2% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -44.6% | 24.2% |
| 2022 | -29.3% | -19.4% |
What is the point? Momentum often precedes conviction. A multi-day win streak can signal growing investor confidence or spark follow-on buying. Tracking such trends can help you ride the strength, or prepare for a well-timed entry if momentum fades. However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has MRNA behaved after prior drops? See MRNA Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 85 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 37 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 32 | 23 |
| 4D | 21 | 8 |
| 5D | 6 | 6 |
| 6D | 25 | 0 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 85 | 37 |
Key Financials for Moderna (MRNA)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $6.8 Bil | $3.2 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-4.2 Bil | $-3.9 Bil |
| Net Income | $-4.7 Bil | $-3.6 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ1 | 2025 FQ2 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $107.0 Mil | $137.0 Mil |
| Operating Income | $-1.0 Bil | $-907.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $-971.0 Mil | $-825.0 Mil |
While MRNA stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.