MRK Stock Surges 8.3% With A 6-day Winning Spree On BMO Capital Upgrade To $130
Merck (MRK) stock hit day 6-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 8.3%. The company market cap has surged by about $20 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $266 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 11.0% compared to 17.9% for S&P 500. This calls for re-evaluation of stock’s valuation, and find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
| Catalyst | Details | Impact | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital Upgrade to Outperform |
|
|
2025-12-18 |
| Positive Drug Pipeline News |
|
|
2025-12-17 |
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are only a couple of things to fear in MRK stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s Moderate valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell MRK).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for MRK stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | MRK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | 8.3% | 1.9% |
| 1M (21D) | 6.9% | 3.4% |
| 3M (63D) | 38.4% | 5.0% |
| YTD 2025 | 11.0% | 17.9% |
| 2024 | -6.3% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 1.0% | 24.2% |
| 2022 | 49.4% | -19.4% |
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 128 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 7 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 58 | 6 |
| 4D | 22 | 0 |
| 5D | 38 | 0 |
| 6D | 8 | 0 |
| 7D or more | 2 | 1 |
| Total >=3 D | 128 | 7 |
Key Financials for Merck (MRK)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $60.1 Bil | $64.2 Bil |
| Operating Income | $3.0 Bil | $20.2 Bil |
| Net Income | $365.0 Mil | $17.1 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $15.8 Bil | $17.3 Bil |
| Operating Income | $5.6 Bil | $6.6 Bil |
| Net Income | $4.4 Bil | $5.8 Bil |
While MRK stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.