Can Monolithic Power Systems Stock Rally 50% After This Dip?
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Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) stock fell 14.8% from its October 5 close to its November 4, 2026 close, and a drop like that tempts buyers. It is smaller than the 20%-plus drops below, so those are a rough guide rather than a match. To rally 50%, the shares would have to recover as they did following past declines, while Monolithic’s revenue would need to keep climbing as it did in the September quarter. Within a year of those earlier drops, the stock reached a best price that was a median 60.6% above its price on the day of the drop. That best price was 50% or more above the drop-day price after 9 of the 15 drops, but the shares were still up more than 50% a year later after only 6. So how did buyers of those earlier drops do a year later?
Monolithic Stock Was Higher A Year After Most Drops
Most came out ahead. The shares traded higher a year later following 11 of the 15 drops since 2010 that have a full year behind them, yielding a median 27% gain. Each of those drops represented a decline of more than 20% within about six weeks. One additional drop in June 2026 remains too recent to evaluate.
Securing those gains required patience. In the median case, shares closed at some point 17.6% below their price on the day of the drop. The median wait to reach the year’s highest price was 267 days, or about nine months.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median MPWR price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 16 | 6.5% |
| 63 trading days | 16 | 14.5% |
| 126 trading days | 15 | 31.0% |
| 252 trading days | 15 | 27.0% |
| Dip date | Fall to dip date (MPWR / SPY) | 1 year later | Best in that year (days to it) | Worst in that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | -20.4% / -2.0% | – | – | – |
| 2025-04-03 | -27.5% / -12.0% | 170.0% | 169.6% (371 days) | -8.7% |
| 2024-11-11 | -30.0% / 4.0% | 43.0% | 72.5% (350 days) | -29.3% |
| 2024-04-19 | -22.8% / -4.0% | -9.0% | 60.6% (124 days) | -22.5% |
| 2022-09-15 | -20.4% / -6.0% | 11.0% | 41.9% (305 days) | -26.0% |
| 2022-05-11 | -24.4% / -15.0% | 4.0% | 39.3% (96 days) | -19.7% |
| 2022-01-13 | -21.8% / 3.0% | -7.0% | 24.4% (214 days) | -28.3% |
| 2021-03-08 | -23.9% / 0% | 27.0% | 91.6% (253 days) | 0% |
| 2020-03-16 | -20.6% / -25.0% | 154.0% | 199.5% (311 days) | -0.6% |
| 2019-05-23 | -20.2% / -2.0% | 72.0% | 79.9% (351 days) | -1.9% |
| 2018-10-08 | -20.5% / 1.0% | 17.0% | 39.6% (340 days) | -10.8% |
| 2014-10-10 | -23.6% / -4.0% | 57.0% | 58.0% (161 days) | -3.2% |
| 2012-10-08 | -20.4% / 3.0% | 79.0% | 82.1% (361 days) | -0.1% |
| 2011-08-08 | -22.5% / -11.0% | 75.0% | 82.3% (267 days) | -17.6% |
| 2010-05-26 | -21.3% / -12.0% | -17.0% | 7.0% (22 days) | -32.6% |
| 2010-02-04 | -22.2% / -4.0% | -22.0% | 31.2% (84 days) | -22.8% |
| Median of 15 complete years | – | 27.0% | 60.6% (267 days) | -17.6% |
Is Monolithic’s Revenue Still Climbing?
Yes, and the pace is fast. Revenue reached $1.2 billion in the September 2026 quarter, rising 63.1% from a year earlier. Management said this marked the company’s first quarter above $1 billion. Operating profit grew even faster, with the operating margin reaching 29.7% against 26.5% a year earlier.
Management expects more. Executives guided December-quarter revenue to a range of $1.32 billion to $1.39 billion, exceeding the September result. They also said on the October 29 call that the communications business will rank as the company’s second fastest-growing end market in 2026, trailing only enterprise data.
Buyers Pay A Steep Price For Monolithic’s Growth
Monolithic shares trade at 69.3 times the company’s earnings over the past twelve months, compared with 22.8 for the S&P 500. At that valuation, buyers are paying for continued growth.
Cash is the part of the business that has lagged. Cash from operations totaled $873 million over the twelve months to September 2026, against $901 million in the preceding twelve months. Revenue rose 40.5% over the same stretch. Past drops also include bad years: a year after the February 2010 drop, the shares were 22% lower.
Buying now means betting that Monolithic shares will recover as they did after most past drops, and that revenue will keep climbing fast enough to support a price far above the market’s. The shares have recovered more often than not, and revenue growth held through September while cash trailed behind it. When Monolithic reports, expected in February 2027, December-quarter revenue against management’s guide is the number to watch.
Still Holding Monolithic Power Systems After The Drop?
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