How Rare Is Mosaic’s Ten-Year Record Low Profit Margin?
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Over the last twelve months, one large potash and phosphate producer lost about 1.5 cents on every dollar it sold after paying the costs of running the business. That producer is The Mosaic Company (MOS), and its operating margin is currently the lowest it has been in ten years. What would you guess Mosaic’s margin usually is?
How Unusual Is This For Mosaic?
Over the past ten years, Mosaic’s operating margin has had a middle value of 7.3%, against a loss of 1.5% of sales now. The table shows the margin for the twelve months to each September. The 7.3% middle value counts the twelve months to every quarter end, not only each September.
| Twelve months ended | Operating margin |
|---|---|
| 2017-09-30 (Q3 FY2017) | 5.7% |
| 2018-09-30 (Q3 FY2018) | 8.7% |
| 2019-09-30 (Q3 FY2019) | 7.6% |
| 2020-09-30 (Q3 FY2020) | 0.383% |
| 2021-09-30 (Q3 FY2021) | 17.8% |
| 2022-09-30 (Q3 FY2022) | 27.3% |
| 2023-09-30 (Q3 FY2023) | 11.7% |
| 2024-09-30 (Q3 FY2024) | 6.5% |
| 2025-09-30 (Q3 FY2025) | 9.2% |
| 2026-09-30 (Q3 FY2026) | -1.5% |
Twelve months in each row, ending at the same fiscal quarter end in each year, 2017-09-30 (Q3 FY2017) to 2026-09-30 (Q3 FY2026).
The previous low was 0.4%, in the twelve months ended September 30, 2020. Even then, Mosaic’s operations made a small profit. The new low was set only in the latest quarter, but it ends a year-long slide. The twelve-month margin fell at each quarter end from 9.2% in the twelve months to September 2025.
What Is Behind Mosaic’s Record Low Margin?
Mosaic chose to run less of its phosphate business. Management said on the November 4 call that it curtailed phosphate production at Bartow, as well as in Louisiana and in Brazil, to match the sulfur it could buy at affordable prices, and idled mining at South Fort Meade. Management also said sulfur supply and cost are limiting production and margins across the industry.
Running fewer tons matters because 70% to 75% of the costs of making phosphate are fixed, as management put it on the same call. Potash, by contrast, is a strong performer and an important cash generator, in management’s words. That suggests most of the weakness sits in phosphates.
Is The Latest Quarter Still Getting Worse?
Against a year earlier, yes. In the quarter to September, Mosaic’s operating margin was a loss of 3.1% of sales, against a profit of 12.0% of sales in the same quarter of 2025. It was also worse than the June quarter, when the loss was 1.0% of sales.
A twelve-month figure moves slowly, and the newest quarter can tell a different story. Here it does not. The loss in the September quarter is deeper than the loss over the full twelve months, which means the newest quarter is still pulling the twelve-month figure down.
When The Record Is Next Tested
Management expects the fourth quarter to be the low point for EBITDA, its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. That holds especially in phosphates, as costlier sulfur flows through. After that, management expects the underlying economics of the phosphate business to improve as Mosaic moves into 2027, as lower cost raw materials flow through inventory and its cost actions gain traction.
Mosaic stock lost 5.3% over the twelve months to November 9, 2026, including dividends, while the S&P 500 returned 13.7%.
Mosaic is expected to report its fourth quarter in February 2027. The figure to watch is that quarter’s operating margin against the loss of 3.1% of sales in the quarter to September.
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