Can You Make Money Off DraftKings Stock Now?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
DraftKings (DKNG) shares fell 20.5% over two trading sessions through November 9, 2026. The decline began on November 6, when the company lowered its 2026 revenue forecast and increased planned spending for its predictions business. Such a sharp drop tempts buyers, and DraftKings stock has recorded drops this large many times before. When people bought after falls like this before, how much did they make, and what did they sit through first?
What DraftKings Dip Buys Were Worth A Year Later
Purchasing DraftKings during a steep decline has more often than not generated a profit a year later. The stock has fallen more than 20% within 30 trading days on 12 separate occasions since its April 2020 listing. Nine of those drops happened more than a year ago, and the shares traded higher 12 months later in five of those instances. At the median, a $10,000 investment on the dip date was worth about $12,400 a year later.
Those gains materialized after further losses. The lowest close in the subsequent year was a median 25.2% below the initial dip price. Buyers waited a median 153 days after the dip, or about five months, to see the best price of that year.
The drops that did not pay off resulted in heavy losses. Four ended the year lower by 34% to 74%. The two most recent full-year results follow the drops of March and October 2025, and both fall into this losing category. Three other drops occurred in January, July and September 2026, meaning a full year has not yet passed.
| Dip date | Fall to dip date (DKNG / SPY) | 1 year later | Best in that year (days to it) | Worst in that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | -22.6% / -1.0% | – | – | – |
| 2026-07-24 | -20.1% / 2.0% | – | – | – |
| 2026-01-30 | -20.4% / 2.0% | – | – | – |
| 2025-10-01 | -21.9% / 5.0% | -46.0% | 3.1% (96 days) | -46.0% |
| 2025-03-28 | -24.0% / -9.0% | -34.0% | 36.7% (153 days) | -41.3% |
| 2024-08-02 | -25.5% / -2.0% | 41.0% | 67.1% (196 days) | -6.8% |
| 2022-12-15 | -20.7% / 4.0% | 179.0% | 208.8% (351 days) | -13.6% |
| 2022-09-26 | -29.4% / -14.0% | 99.0% | 121.9% (305 days) | -25.2% |
| 2021-10-15 | -21.3% / -1.0% | -73.0% | 2.1% (5 days) | -78.6% |
| 2021-05-03 | -20.7% / 7.0% | -74.0% | 11.5% (129 days) | -76.0% |
| 2020-10-28 | -25.2% / -3.0% | 24.0% | 88.7% (142 days) | -7.2% |
| 2020-07-13 | -25.7% / 4.0% | 62.0% | 144.0% (249 days) | 0% |
| Median of 9 complete years | – | 24.0% | 67.1% (153 days) | -25.2% |
DraftKings Is Growing Sales But Losing More Money
Reported revenue rose 16.2% from a year earlier to $1.33 billion in fiscal Q3 2026. On the November 6 call, management said its own measure of Sportsbook net revenue grew 36% and iGaming net revenue grew 2%, which it tied to promotions to win new customers. Yet the operating loss deepened to 37.1% of revenue, from 23.8% a year earlier. Cash from operations, $287 million in the same quarter of 2025, fell to about zero.
Management said its adjusted loss for the quarter primarily reflected the bigger investment in predictions, where customers trade on its DKX exchange. There is a legal question over predictions. Management’s base case is a Supreme Court ruling on sports contracts in mid-2028, and it said the money spent on its 2026 predictions customers would be fully paid back even if those contracts ended in July 2028.
DraftKings stock trades at a discount to the broader market based on sales. The shares trade at 1.5 times the company’s twelve-month revenue on a price-to-sales basis, compared with 3.1 times for the S&P 500.
What You Need To Believe To Buy DraftKings Now
To buy now, you need to believe that the predictions spending pays back and then shrinks, as management expects. Management put that spending, which it counts against adjusted EBITDA, at $650 million to $700 million in 2026, stepping down to about $300 million at the midpoint in 2027.
Shareholders also take on a company with more debt than cash. DraftKings held $1.1 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of September, compared with $2.28 billion of debt.
Past drops have paid off more often than not, but the two from 2025 did not. For an investment to work today, the business must keep growing while predictions spending falls in 2027 as management plans. Operating cash flow sat at about zero in the third quarter. That figure will be the metric to watch when DraftKings reports again, an event expected in February 2027.
Beyond DKNG: A Systematic Way To Invest
Before you decide on DKNG, consider a better choice. Since its September 2020 launch, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000, without betting on one stock.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.