How Will Altria Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Altria (NYSE:MO) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. The company has $107 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $20 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $12 Bil in operating profits and net income of $8.8 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Altria’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 2.0%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.6% | 5.3% | 11.9% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.1% | -0.2% | 6.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.0% | -2.1% | 5.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 6.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.0% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 10/26/2023 | -8.3% | -6.8% | -3.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.5% | -2.9% | -2.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.1% | -0.3% | -4.3% |
| 2/1/2023 | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | -1.9% | -3.2% | -3.4% |
| 7/28/2022 | -0.2% | 0.4% | 5.3% |
| 4/28/2022 | 0.5% | 2.7% | -0.8% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | -6.1% | -5.3% | -7.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | 2.1% | -1.2% | 2.4% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| 1/28/2021 | 2.0% | 0.4% | 4.3% |
| 10/30/2020 | -2.1% | 1.2% | 8.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.5% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 7.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| Max Negative | -8.3% | -6.8% | -7.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -49.0% | -20.7% | -1.2% |
| 3Y History | -60.2% | -34.2% | -6.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Altria stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Altria. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| MO Earnings Dates | MO | PM |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.6% | -1.9% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 1.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.0% | 5.1% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.4% | -1.6% |
| 10/26/2023 | -8.3% | -1.1% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.1% | 2.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | -1.9% | 5.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | -0.2% | 3.8% |
| 4/28/2022 | 0.5% | -2.5% |
| 10/28/2021 | -6.1% | 0.2% |
| 7/29/2021 | 2.1% | 5.6% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.2% | 1.2% |
| CORRELATION | 21.1% |
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