Expectations for Higher McAfee Market Share in Business Security Software
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) announced its acquisition of McAfee (NYSE:MFE) for $7.68 billion in cash a few days ago. Rising market share for McAfee’s enterprise security software, as opposed to a flat forecast by Trefis, could push up the Trefis estimate for McAfee’s intrinsic value by around 11%. We estimate that Security Software for Businesses accounts for around one-third of McAfee’s value.
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of McAfee’s stock over the last week: (1) McAfee Share in Security Software for Businesses Market and (2) McAfee Share in Antivirus & Security Software Market. The member forecasts suggest that McAfee Share in Security Software for Businesses Market will trend higher than the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis, while McAfee Share in Antivirus & Security Software Market will trend in-line.
McAfee competes with Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) and TrendMicro in the enterprise as well as consumer antivirus market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $32 for McAfee’s stock, about 31% below the current market price of around $47.
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Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
1. McAfee Share in Security Software for Businesses Market
The average of Trefis member forecasts for McAfee Share in Security Software for Businesses Market indicate an increase from around 17% in 2010 to 20% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around 14.8% in 2010 to 15.4% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 11% to the Trefis price estimate for McAfee’s stock. In the past, McAfee Share in Security Software for Businesses Market has increased from 11% in 2005 to around 15% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of McAfee’s stock to McAfee Share in Security Software for Businesses Market.
Our complete analysis for McAfee Share in Security Software for Businesses Market is here.
2. McAfee Share in Antivirus & Security Software Market
The average of Trefis member forecasts for McAfee Share in Antivirus & Security Software Market indicate an increase from around 21% in 2010 to around 22% by 2016, roughly in-line with the baseline Trefis estimates. The member estimates imply a small downside to the Trefis price estimate for McAfee’s stock. In the past, McAfee Share in Antivirus & Security Software Market has increased from 16.5% in 2005 to around 20% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of McAfee’s stock to McAfee Share in Antivirus & Security Software Market.