How To Trade MetLife Stock Ahead Of Q2 Earnings?

MetLife (NYSE:MET) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. Earnings are projected to come in at about $2.16 per share, down marginally compared to last year, per consensus estimates, while revenues are likely to come in at about $18.50 billion, down by about 1% year-over-year.  Over the previous quarter, the company witnessed higher life underwriting margins, volume growth and variable investment income, although this was partly offset by unfavorable foreign currency impacts and lower recurring interest margins. Similar trends could drive Q2 results as well, with the dollar remaining weak. The company has $53 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $72 billion, with net income coming in at $4.5 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

MetLife’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 8 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -1.8%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

MET 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

MET Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of MetLife stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before MetLife. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

MET Correlation With Peer Earnings

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like MetLife, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates