How Will MercadoLibre Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, November 4, 2026. The company has a market value of about $85.0 billion. Over the last twelve months, it generated $35.2 billion in revenue and $2.9 billion in operating profit, with net income of $1.9 billion.
How the stock moves after the release will depend on how the results and outlook compare with expectations. What history can offer is the base rate: how often, and how far, the stock has moved after past reports.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has MercadoLibre Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 70% of the time.
- Over the last three years, that share falls to 55%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 14 positive 1D returns is 5.6%, and the median of the 6 negative ones is -9.2%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 16.2% and -16.2%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D), and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/5/2026 | -4.8% | -4.9% | 3.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -12.7% | -14.0% | -13.8% |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | -10.8% | -14.7% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 0.3% | -9.8% |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | -8.8% | -8.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.6% | 16.4% | 28.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | 8.3% | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.4% | -12.2% | -13.5% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 27.1% |
| 8/2/2023 | 13.6% | 12.7% | 17.8% |
| 5/3/2023 | -5.2% | 0.7% | -0.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| 8/3/2022 | 16.2% | 19.5% | -3.6% |
| 5/5/2022 | 1.6% | -20.8% | -12.0% |
| 2/22/2022 | 3.7% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 4.7% | 1.3% | -28.5% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 9 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 7.4% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.2% | -10.8% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -20.8% | -28.5% |
Does The First Move Carry On?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.11 | -0.09 | 0.26 |
| 3 Years | 0.10 | 0.09 | -0.04 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Amazon.com (AMZN), PayPal (PYPL), and EBAY usually report about 6 to 8 days before MercadoLibre, and have already reported this season. Amazon.com stock fell 1.4% the day after its October 29 report, PayPal rose 2.0% on its October 27 report, and eBay (EBAY) slipped 0.7% on its October 22 report. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with MercadoLibre’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are AMZN (-0.09), PYPL (0.50), EBAY (-0.09); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed MercadoLibre’s.
| MELI Earnings Date | MELI 1D | AMZN 1D | PYPL 1D | EBAY 1D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/5/2026 | -4.8% | 15.3% | 4.0% | n/a |
| 5/7/2026 | -12.7% | 0.8% | -7.7% | -0.3% |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | n/a | n/a | 3.1% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | n/a | 3.9% | n/a |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -8.3% | -8.7% | 18.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | -0.1% | 2.1% | -0.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | -4.1% | -13.2% | n/a |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | 6.2% | -4.0% | -8.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.6% | n/a | 8.6% | 1.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | 8.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | -3.3% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.4% | n/a | -11.2% | n/a |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.5% | 6.8% | n/a | n/a |
| 8/2/2023 | 13.6% | n/a | n/a | -10.5% |
| 5/3/2023 | -5.2% | -4.0% | n/a | 5.1% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.8% | n/a | 3.0% | -5.2% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.8% | -6.8% | n/a | 2.0% |
| 8/3/2022 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | n/a |
| 5/5/2022 | 1.6% | -14.0% | 11.5% | -11.7% |
| Correlation | – | -0.09 | 0.50 | -0.09 |
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