MCO Stock Falls -20% In 7-day Losing Spree On Goldman PT Cut And Peer Warning
Moodys (MCO) – a global firm providing credit ratings and risk management solutions – hit a 7-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -20%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $19 Bil over the last 7 days and currently stands at $74 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 19.3% compared to 1.4% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Goldman Sachs Price Target Cut
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- Price target reduced to $532 from $603
- Stock fell sharply following the announcement
- Impact: Accelerated Selling Pressure, Eroding Investor Confidence
[2] S&P Global’s Weak 2026 Outlook
- S&P Global’s 2026 EPS forecast missed estimates
- MCO stock fell in sympathy with S&P Global’s decline
- Impact: Sector-wide selloff in financial data providers, Increased concerns about industry headwinds
[3] CEO Stock Sales
- CEO sold shares on February 2nd and 3rd
- Transaction disclosed in SEC filings
- Impact: Negative investor sentiment, Concerns over management’s confidence
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in MCO stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s High valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell MCO).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -20% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for MCO stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | MCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -1.6% | -0.0% |
| 7D (Current Streak) | -20.3% | -0.5% |
| 1M (21D) | -23.0% | -0.5% |
| 3M (63D) | -14.8% | 1.6% |
| YTD 2026 | -19.3% | 1.4% |
| 2025 | 8.7% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 22.2% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 41.5% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: MCO Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 101 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 52 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 23 | 40 |
| 4D | 56 | 5 |
| 5D | 9 | 3 |
| 6D | 3 | 1 |
| 7D or more | 10 | 3 |
| Total >=3 D | 101 | 52 |
Key Financials for Moodys (MCO)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $5.9 Bil | $7.1 Bil |
| Operating Income | $2.2 Bil | $3.0 Bil |
| Net Income | $1.6 Bil | $2.1 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.9 Bil | $2.0 Bil |
| Operating Income | $846.0 Mil | $939.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $578.0 Mil | $646.0 Mil |
The losing streak MCO stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.